At a time of year when a lot of folks are shouting, “Boo”, there’s more and more reason for Barack Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to be crying, “Boohoo.”
Poll upon poll and pundit after pundit are now predicting a GOP wave election on Tuesday. One of the more respected, non-partisan analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, has just forecast disastrous midterm results for Democrats.
President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.
In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
In his analysis published at rollcall.com, Rothenberg says that Obama had one midterm (2010) where his party lost 63 House seats. On Tuesday, Democrats are expected to lose as many as another dozen or so House seats, taking Obama’s total midterm House loses to the 68-75 seat range.
As for the Senate side of things:
Democrats lost 6 Senate seats in 2010 and seem likely to lose from 5 to as many as 10 seats next week. That would add up to Obama midterm Senate losses of from 11 seats to as many as 16 seats.
Then there’s a lengthy analysis in Friday’s Wall Street Journal, showing that Democrats face further erosion of a once-reliable support group, as white, working-class voters give Republicans an edge in a number of contested Congressional elections.
Seven of the 39 House races rated most competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report are in districts with large numbers of white, working-class voters; six of those districts are held by Democrats.
In addition, one other such Democratic district is seen as likely to flip Republican.
And as we head into the final weekend before the midterms, Nate Silver’s respected FiveThirtyEight blog has just published an update to their forecast for Senate contests…and it’s more “boohoo” news for the Democrats.
The GOP’s chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, its highest figure of the year.
The likelihood of a wave election for the surging GOP is also supported by the latest survey results from Rasmussen Reports, which says that voters believe more strongly than ever that next Tuesday’s elections will put Republicans in charge of the Senate.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Likely U.S. Voters now believe it is likely Republicans will win a majority in the U.S. Senate this November, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. That’s up from 44% in early January and 54% in July.
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