According to a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll, the voter turnout next November will be around 1.6% less than it was in 2008. The survey found, “Most of the non-voters would choose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney…”
A noted political “expert” thinks Independents will be chased away from the polls by the extremely negative campaigning from Barack Obama and the Democrats, and that is their goal. He opines: “One of the reasons the Democrats have been so much more negative thus far this year is that they are just trying to keep the independents at home because the polls suggest there is still a larger Democratic base still than a Republican base.”
The truth is “the polls” don’t suggest there are more Democrats than Republicans. In fact, they tell us just the opposite, and they have indicated this for a long time. Moreover, the latest Rasmussen poll of generic preference for Congress shows that likely voters want a Republican Congress by a margin of 42/39.
Another Rasmussen survey of likely voters shows Romney leading 47/43, which reflects a continuation of the lead he took last week before he named Paul Ryan as his Vice-Presidential running mate.
The indications are that the people who are not showing up this time are for the most part probably coming from the pool of “new” voters, whether the young or others wanted to be “part of history” by voting for Obama. They were one-time voters the Democrats can’t and won’t get back.
While new voters are planning to stay home, a new Zogby poll is reporting 41% of “Young voters” aged 18 to 29 who will be voting plan to vote for Romney. If this holds in November, it will deliver 5% more of this group to the Romney/Ryan ticket than John McCain got in 2008. Still worse for Obama is the 10% of young voters who are “undecided,” as “undecideds” almost always go with the challenger or stay home.
One week after Obama’s vicious TV ads started, his approval rating fell 3 points from 46% to 43%. Those who think these negative spots are helping Obama are wrong. Independents Republicans and probably some Democrats don’t like them.
Summed up, A) fewer people intend to vote; B) of those who will vote, fewer intend to vote for Obama; and C) negative nasty TV ads are turning people away from Obama.
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Photo Credit : Gage Skidmore (Creative Commons)