“If this were just our candidates versus their candidates, I would sign an affidavit that we would pick up 35 seats” says Congressman Steve Israel, the Democrat in charge of getting the House back. This false bravado sums up a big part of the Democrats’ problem: not being able to acknowledge there is a problem.
A hand-wringing New York Times analysis lays out the grim situation for its Party.“The overall dynamic favors Republicans, who look poised to maintain their hold on the House. More Democrats than Republicans have retired in districts where they were endangered, and more Republicans benefited from the decennial redistricting, leaving the Democrats with too small a cushion of Teflon incumbents as they try to regain a majority in the House. Of the 80 races viewed as most competitive by The New York Times, based on polls and interviews with independent analysts, 32 are leaning Republican, 23 are leaning Democratic and 25 are tossups.”
The reality is that these numbers indicate the GOP is poised to win over 50 of these races and maybe more. Because of the cumulative effect of both elections, this would be worse than 2010 for the Democrats, who could see their numbers fall to their lowest since 1931.
Why this will happen
With less than four months to go, compared to 2008, conservative Republican enthusiasm is 16 points higher, and liberal Democrat enthusiasm is 22 points lower.
Democrats from local candidates to Barack Obama have no coherent plausible message.
Together, they have made America sick, so what can they say?
They can’t even keep their “We hate” list straight. They’ve tried to get their base to hate Bain Capital but couldn’t make their charges stick because they are lies. They’re still trying to get their base to hate the TEA party, but every charge they make is a lie, so it falls flat. Now they are telling their Christian base to hate Christian doctrine and love Democrats, which is also doomed to fail.
There is no group Obama lost in 2008 that he is winning now and no group (not even African-Americans) he won in 2008 that he is doing better with today. Now that voters have a clearer idea of what he is all about, Barack Obama will be an even bigger drag on his Party this year than he was in 2010 when the GOP took 63 seats in a landslide not seen since 1938.
Americans are NOT going to the polls to vote against Barack Obama and then vote for a Democrat in their Congressional district, as Mr. Israel fantasizes. Come November, Democrat policies will sink them in large numbers.
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