In 2008, Barack Obama won Wisconsin by a landslide 56/42, but according to a new Marquette Law School (MLS) poll, that was then, this is now (and “now” isn’t looking very good for Obama.) Because the 2010 election of Wisconsin’s Governor Scott Walker represented a major defeat for unions in general and the state’s unions in particular, there has been an almost endless series of recalls of Republicans and some Democrats.
All of these recalls provide a uniquely accurate picture of the sentiment of Wisconsin’s voters – by a reliable margin, they don’t favor Democrats or unions.
The next recall election forces both Walker and his Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch to stand for election again. The Democrats are running Tom Barrett, the Mayor of Milwaukee, setting up a rematch of 2010’s election. In that one, Walker won by 5 points, and after all of the nonstop attacks against him and tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of hours of work against him, Walker is now ahead by 6 points. The Democratic National Committee and the Democrat Governors Association have fled for their lives, leaving local Democrats fuming and pointing fingers of blame.
When MLS questioned respondents about their enthusiasm to vote in the recall election, likely Republican voters said they were 91% “absolutely certain” to vote while only 83% of likely Democratic voters said the same.
Looking ahead to November, the MLS poll shows Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 46% each, a noticeable improvement over just the last month when the same poll had Obama leading 49/45. This improvement in Romney’s position is easy to understand in light of the fact that 62% of Republicans say they have tried to persuade others to support Republican candidates, but only 54% of Democrats have done the same.
The report summed up the situation for Obama with this observation: “In a close election with so few undecided voters, enthusiasm, turnout, and campaign contact with voters may make the difference.”
In light of the fact that Obama is sinking fast while his opponent is rising, it’s likely that Obama is now even losing in Wisconsin.