Tonight Mitt Romney could give the most effective debate performance since Ronald Reagan out debated President Carter, or even since Abraham Lincoln showed up Stephen Douglas, and Mitt Romney will still lose the post debate swing state polls. Why? Because the voter samples that the media pollsters will call are already stacked to favor Democrats over Republicans. It’s almost like a 1970′s Olympics where the Soviets have the East Germans as judges and referees. There’s just no way Mitt Romney can win these polls. Let’s look at the recent reality of actual voter registration and data in the most critical swing states and then compare them to the most recent media polls in each state.
Florida actually lists party registration for their 11.6 million registered voters. 4.6 million voters, or 40%, are Democrats, and 4.2 million voters, or 36%, are Republicans. When over 8 million Floridians vote this year, it will probably be close to the actual registration.
Florida’s most recent exit poll history shows that the average partisan total for the last 4 statewide elections, including the last 2 presidential elections, is: Democrats 37% and Republicans 38%.
2004 Democrat 37% Republican 41%. 2006 Democrat 36% Republican 39%. 2008 Democrat 37% Republican 34%. 2010 Democrat 36% Republican 36%.
Here are some recent biased Florida media polls (compare the level of Republicans): 9/26 CBS/NYTimes Democrat 36% Republican 27% 9/23 Washington Post Democrat 35% Republican 29%
The most recent CBS/NYTimes and Washington Post polls have Republicans at levels not seen in Florida since the 1960′s. How can Romney win the coming media polls with fewer Republicans represented than when Barry Goldwater ran for President?
Ohio doesn’t have registration by declared party, but the most recent exit poll history shows that the average partisan total for the last 4 statewide elections including the last 2 presidential elections is: Democrats 38% and Republicans 36%
2004 Democrat 35% Republican 40% 2006 Democrat 40% Republican 37% 2008 Democrat 40% Republican 31% 2010 Democrat 36% Republican 37%
Here are recent biased Ohio media polls: 9/26 CBS/NYTimes Democrat 35% Republican 26% 9/23 Washington Post Democrat 35% Republican 27% 9/11 NBC/Wall St Journal Democrat 38% Republican 28%
Again the most recent CBS/NYTimes, Washington Post and NBC/WSJ polls have Republicans again under 30% at levels not seen in Ohio since before the Civil War. Although we do have to note that as of this very morning NBC produced a new Ohio poll with 36% Democrats 31% Republicans and a closer Presidential race. At least they had Republicans over 30%. We’ll see if it grows closer to the historical average?
Finally Virginia is another key swing state with no party registration, but there are plenty of exit and recent polls tracking party affiliation. The most recent exit poll history shows that the average partisan total for the last 4 statewide elections including the last 2 presidential elections is: Democrats 36% and Republicans 37%
2004 Democrat 35% Republican 39% 2006 Democrat 36% Republican 39% 2008 Democrat 39% Republican 33% 2009 Democrat 33% Republican 37%
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