I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
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dick,you predicted all right,but where we lost ,was on the latino vote. urge all to contact john boehner ,lethim know there is evidence of video/audio tapes,e-mails,drone pic’s that “bo” saw in WH, 5pm,he,biden,panetta sain nothing could done, wrong. a F-16 plane would have been here in 20 minutes. time to impeach,treason. pl,orl,fla
Dick Morris is no fool. However, I am not sure the Latino and lady parts vote will be firm after 4 more years.
We are on a path from bad to very bad and then the bottom falls out of the economy and the social fabric of promises made will not be promises kept.
If a women is scorned, her wrath is violent. Obama will discover the free love and nickle beer are not enough to keep the Democrat plantation happy.
Let’s face it Dicky, you were sabotaged by the R elites like the rest of us, there was no way to win when the unused political ammo still in the boxcar and the ongoing 47% obama-phone buy out….the 69,000 calls to the voter fraud center, just pay it no never mind……
Vote Fraud – What They Aren’t Telling You!
http://wethepeopleusa.ning.com/profiles/blogs/vote-fraud-what-they-aren-t-telling-you-part-1-of-3?xg_source=activity
“Food For Thought”
Semper Fi!
Jake
You did not account for voter FRAUD either!!!!