In it’s last survey, Pew found that among white Catholics, Barack Obama is trailing Mitt Romney 57/37. As clear as these numbers are, left alone and not attacked by the Left, they portend “game set match Mr. Romney” in November. In the history of such polling, no Democrat has ever lost the Catholic vote and won the general election for president. Obviously, this is a very dangerous statistic for Democrats, and the fact that it is so easily confirmed makes it more so. Enter Gallup. To obfuscate the power of Obama’s deficit with Catholics, Gallup has come to Obama’s recue with its new polling results on the Catholic vote saying “No it’s not 57/37, but actually tied at 46/46!”
Wow! Two well established polling companies have talked to thousands of respondents and come up with a twenty point difference in what they see as the Catholic vote – but how can that be?
The 57/37 lead Pew found for Romney comes among white Catholics. The number Gallup got for white Catholics shows a statistically identical 38/55. Pew found that Hispanics support Obama 67/27. Gallup’s numbers were worse for Romney at 70/20 in Obama’s favor.
Now let’s peek under the numbers.
It is an established fact that Democrats are anywhere from 5 to 8 points less enthusiastic about voting in November. Nevertheless, compared to the average Democrat, Hispanics are even less enthused about voting for Obama again. The Census revealed some even more disheartening news about the possibilities of a big Hispanic turn-out for Democrats in November.
The Hispanic vote was 7% of the grand total in 2000, 8% in 2004, and 9% in 2008. This steady progression among a group that votes 2 to 1 Democrat sounds good for Obama, but this year, Hispanic enthusiasm to vote has not only dropped, but the raw number of registered Hispanic voters has fallen by 6% since 2008. Worse still for Obama is the most recent information showing just 38% of Hispanics report being enthusiastic about voting in November.
This lack of enthusiasm, when added to the numerically low turnout among Hispanics, will be toxic for Obama’s chances of winning the Catholic vote in November. In 2010, although 69% of eligible Hispanics voted, the raw number of Hispanic votes isn’t very significant since they were just 10.1% of America’s adult population. But it won’t appear that way to a liberal trying to put a happy face on Obama ’s chances of winning the Catholic vote.
The 2010 mid term Election was a national referendum on Obama that saw Republicans win the Catholic vote 53/45. That was before Obama declared war on the Catholic Church. Saying Obama is in a better position with Catholics now that he is locked in a life or death fight with the Conference of Catholic Bishops is simply not supportable.