Americans woke up Friday to the good news that the unemployment rate had dropped sharply from 9% to 8.6%. On closer inspection, the decline is highly questionable — and doesn’t warrant a surge in optimism.
The White House hailed the news as “further evidence that the economy is continuing to health” and proving the $447 billion stimulus proposal “is the right medicine” for what ails us. Some in the media likewise saw good news, with headlines such as the Boston Globe’s “Unemployment Drops To Lowest Since 2009.”
We’re not trying to be Grinches, but the decline in the unemployment rate is highly suspect for many reasons.
The number is derived from a huge survey of 60,000 households the government takes each month. In November, the survey showed the labor force shrank by 315,000. That shrinkage makes the unemployment rate look a lot better than it is.
This is questionable because in the previous three months, the labor force increased by 323,000 workers on average. Statistically, a one-month reversal in the size of the workforce of more than 600,000 people just doesn’t make sense — unless an awful lot of people threw up their hands in disgust and quit looking.
And that’s what seems to be the case. The labor participation rate declined to 64% from 64.2% a month before. Usually, it rises when jobs are growing as people rejoin the labor force.
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Would our goverment lie to us ,surly not ,or maybe they just forgot the people who gave up looking for work ,or ran out of unemploment.
It is a "Statistical" LIE. The rat e is MUCH HIGHER>
Wow, Would you believe it and without the new stimulus jobs bill. That would be great but I don’t believe it for a second. Keep in mind….Muslims LIE.
Direct to you from the LIE O CRATS. where truth is an unheard , unknown and a dirty word.
Given the number of variables that can go into or be removed from the calculation of the unemployment rate, it is most likely B.S. The most easily-manipulated stat a liar like that in the White House can have.
Interesting, though not strictly applicable to unemployment figures:
http://www.datalite.org/manipulate-distort-statis…
Some examples:
http://www.sullivan-county.com/identity/unemploym…
If you had even a passing understanding of statistics, you wouldn't have much problem digging into the "number of variables" in this calculation—you wouldn't have to say "it is most likely B.S." because, y'know, they're numbers, and they tell a story, and if you could understand them, you could tell that story too, or at least talk about the story with something approaching knowledge of what you're talking about.
The most easily-manipulated stat a liar like that in the White House can have.
All statistics are pretty easily manipulated. Do you understand why that is?
Interesting, though not strictly applicable to unemployment figures:
First of all, that's not terribly interesting. Second, that page isn't all that enlightening. Third, there's this little gem in site you linked to: "The bane of accurately portrayal of statistics is definition." So, with that in mind, here's BLS' definitions. I look forward to your scholarly analysis: http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques2
Some examples:
Suggested edit: "Some examples none more recent than 2009"
Have you considered posting sober?
Did, do, will continue to do so.
Have you considered taking a statistics course from your local community college?