In the last Rasmussen survey of Party identification before the 2010 election, the Democrats held a Party ID lead of 2.9%. Republicans were 33.4% Democrats 36.3% and Independents 30.3%. Republicans still won 63 seats in Congress.
Today’s Rasmussen final Party ID survey shows Republicans at an all-time high of 39.1%, Democrats at 33.3%, and Independents at 27.5%. There are 5.8% more Republicans than Democrats.
Since September’s survey, published a bit over 30 days ago, Republicans have grown 2.3%, Democrats have fallen .9%, and Independents have fallen 1.5%.
These shifts account for only 2.4 points of the difference of 5.8. Where have the other 3.4 points come from?
It means people feel more comfortable identifying as Republican. It means where registration has continued into the middle or end of October (in New York State, it went on until Oct. 13), Republicans have seen a strong increase in registrations.
It also means that some Democrats – almost one full point – have switched Parties, and 1.5 points of Independents have re-registered as Republicans. In both cases, theses voters can obviously be counted on as the most extreme of likely voters. Have these voters answered pollsters? Do they account for the leads that have been reported for Mitt Romney in early voting if such voting is an option in their state?
Given Rasmussen’s new 5.8% Republicans registration edge, how can CNN or any poll use an over-sample of Democrats to any extent, let alone 11 points?
If oversampling of Democrats anywhere between 2 to 11 points produces just a tie or a slight lead for Barack Obama, factoring in Rasmussen’s huge registration lead produces a terrifying scenario for Obama.
On October 16, Gallup confirmed what you’ve read here for months: Obama is NOT winning any group he lost in 2008. Nor is he doing better with any group; not blacks, Hispanics, Jews, women, or young voters. Add this to these new Rasmussen numbers, and it is very hard to see Barack Obama winning.
An expression I heard many times in the Marine Corps fits our situation: Today is tomorrow; there are no more tomorrows. Go get your friends, and march to the polls.
Photo credit: DonkeyHotey (Creative Commons)