The “Path to 270” (Pt270) plan denies the realities of the very demographics it uses and the only honest feature of its make up is an acknowledgement that White people are not going to vote for Democrats any time soon.
Pt270 believes Obama can magically cut Democrat loses among college grads to 15% instead of the 30% beating they got in 2010 when unemployment among college graduates was 4.2%.
A Gallup poll of college graduates finds 11% unemployed or under-employed which is 2% above the national average. It would be an amazing and quite unlikely feat to keep Democrats loses down to “only” last year’s 30%.
The next dream from Pt270 is the one where Obama and the Democrats abandon trying to appeal to Whites without college degrees – 72%- are and replace those lost voters with White the 28% that have college degrees. Aside from the lopsided numbers comparing one to the other, only 49% of college grads self identify as liberals – and there open to considering the Democrats as candidates they could support.
The plan next describes how necessary it will be for Obama to lose the White vote by “only” 17 points (58/41) as John Kerry did in 2004. Obama’s 12 point losing margin (55/42) among White voters was only good enough to get him a 7.2% winning margin overall. Considering he would have to cut the 30 point White voter beating Democrats took as his surrogates last year by 2/3, pulling out a victory looks like a tall order if not an outright impossibility.
The “Enthusiasm gap” and the Occupy Wall Street factor
Perhaps the most important piece of data left out by the authors of Pt270 left out of their equation is the yawning voter enthusiasm gap between the two Parties. In this crucial measurement Republicans lead by 21 points among those motivated to actually go out and vote.
The spectacle of Chicago’s streets exploding in violence during the 1968 Democrat Convention left an indelible brand on the Democrats as lawless thugs who would resort to anarchy to force their will on the nation. The Occupy Wall Street people have announced that they will be back in the spring ready to do battle with our police forces. In 1968 the old media had to show what was going on and did so reluctantly. Today’s new media will cover every brick thrown and every cop spat upon. The internet will provide pictures of OWS people defecating on American flags and being arrested for selling drugs. If the authors of this plan believe Obama can withstand all of this and still be reelected they are delusional.