The “Path to 270” (Pt270) plan denies the realities of the very demographics it uses and the only honest feature of its make up is an acknowledgement that White people are not going to vote for Democrats any time soon.
Pt270 believes Obama can magically cut Democrat loses among college grads to 15% instead of the 30% beating they got in 2010 when unemployment among college graduates was 4.2%.
A Gallup poll of college graduates finds 11% unemployed or under-employed which is 2% above the national average. It would be an amazing and quite unlikely feat to keep Democrats loses down to “only” last year’s 30%.
The next dream from Pt270 is the one where Obama and the Democrats abandon trying to appeal to Whites without college degrees – 72%- are and replace those lost voters with White the 28% that have college degrees. Aside from the lopsided numbers comparing one to the other, only 49% of college grads self identify as liberals – and there open to considering the Democrats as candidates they could support.
The plan next describes how necessary it will be for Obama to lose the White vote by “only” 17 points (58/41) as John Kerry did in 2004. Obama’s 12 point losing margin (55/42) among White voters was only good enough to get him a 7.2% winning margin overall. Considering he would have to cut the 30 point White voter beating Democrats took as his surrogates last year by 2/3, pulling out a victory looks like a tall order if not an outright impossibility.
The “Enthusiasm gap” and the Occupy Wall Street factor
Perhaps the most important piece of data left out by the authors of Pt270 left out of their equation is the yawning voter enthusiasm gap between the two Parties. In this crucial measurement Republicans lead by 21 points among those motivated to actually go out and vote.
The spectacle of Chicago’s streets exploding in violence during the 1968 Democrat Convention left an indelible brand on the Democrats as lawless thugs who would resort to anarchy to force their will on the nation. The Occupy Wall Street people have announced that they will be back in the spring ready to do battle with our police forces. In 1968 the old media had to show what was going on and did so reluctantly. Today’s new media will cover every brick thrown and every cop spat upon. The internet will provide pictures of OWS people defecating on American flags and being arrested for selling drugs. If the authors of this plan believe Obama can withstand all of this and still be reelected they are delusional.
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OK, coach, a few obvious problems with your analysis:
First, the "Path to 270" is put out by a think tank (a progressive/liberal one, but nonetheless, a think tank), not anyone who actually speaks for the Obama campaign.
Second, campaigns regularly put out disinformation at this point in the electoral season, so as to confuse/mislead the other side–so even if it came directly from Obama's campaign manager it's reliability would be suspect. (Maybe ESPECIALLY if it came from there, for a host of reasons.)
Third, as unhappy as folks are with Obama, the Republicans seem pitifully eager to come up with someone even worse as a candidate. Perhaps they've written off 2012.
Believe whatever makes you feel good. I've spent some time in "war rooms" and to me this looks like a smoke signal to big donors not to give up and to keep giving because there is still "a way" for Obama to win. Your talk about about Republicans giving up is trite – it sounds like something you got from Michael Savage. It proves you really don't know much about politics.
Yeah, I'm a big Michael Savage fan.
Actually that was a joke though, about the GOP–I don't think they've given up. But with the candidates they're coming up with, perhaps they should.
Incidentally, you could be right about this be a signal to big donors–but you could be wrong. The point is, we don't know, and to suggest that we do simply seems to be your "smoke signal" to GOP believers that all is not lost.
Hussein obama is NOT going to go down without a fight. They are blowing smoke screens and kicking up dust just to befuddle WE THE PEOPLE even more than we are already. Obama will come in again even if not one single solitary vote gets counted. From my mouth to God's ear. Wait and see. WE THE PEOPLE have been asleep at the wheel for far far too long and hussein and his buddy in arms george soros knows that this state of apathy is rampant, most especially with the white people in this country, hussein lives under the delusion of grandeur and WE THE PEOPLE put up with this crap because we have been indoctrinated in our lives with having to be "politically in/correct
Get a grip if the defense authorization bill passes on Thursdays vote in the senate you won’t have to worry about who is going to be president any more. Our lawmakers need to be reminded that we are a people that live by the constitutional law not by military rule, this unconstitutional amendment that would give our military the obligation to arrest you or I just by saying they think you or I may be a threat, & our country is an extension of the current middle eastern battlefield. If this is something you are just hearing about it is because it was only mentioned one time on Fox Business by Ret Judge Napolitano (no relation to the other) and a program called Democracy Now the war & peace report usually on LINK TV. And of course the CSPAN 2 channel on Direct TV all day today. Please folks wake up and get on your phone to your senators and anyone else in government that will listen to you or you may not have a vote. Remember that campaign promise if elected he will put together a police force as well equipped as the military funny how quick one forgets.
You can face the facts that this will be the most corrupt election this country has ever seen. With Soros, Union corruption, Acorn under new names, The Black panthers, Chicago thugs,and the socialist party in congress tampering with the votes what else do you expect to happen. My reply is, if no legal birth certificate and proper documents are provided then his name should be voided in all states. End of story.