A number of Barack Obama’s essential voting blocs have waning enthusiasm to vote next month, and they are reporting this lack of excitement to pollsters around the country. These blocs, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Young voters, are substantially less likely to turn out to vote.
In assessing Obama’s situation, the Left has fallen back to the straw man position of “Well, of course Obama is winning among African Americans, Hispanics, and Young voters.” This is very true, but his winning these groups is a given. The question is: how much will their winning margins help carry Obama total vote count?
The most recent survey shows Republican enthusiasm at 13 points higher than Democrat enthusiasm. No one is still insisting that the Democrats have an edge in eagerness to get to the polls.
The simple black and white survey numbers tell the story. In 2008, young voters assured pollsters right up to Election Day that 72% of them intended to vote and that by 67/33, they would be voting for Obama. Well, they did vote for Obama at that rate; but ultimately, only 52% actually did vote. This year, just 63% are even saying that they intend to vote; but only 50% of these young voters are currently registered to vote, and they are reporting that they will support Obama at the lesser rate of 57/35.
The Latino vote is quickly slipping away from Obama. In 2008, he got 67% of the Hispanic vote; and a new survey from Florida shows Romney winning Hispanics there by 46/44. Beyond this, Hispanic voter registration nationwide fell by 600.000 between 2008 and 2010. Only 59% of Latinos report that they are definitely going to vote, which is a sharp drop from the 77% who promised to turn out in 2008.
Because the 77% in 2008 shrunk to an actual 50%, there is room to believe that today’s 59% could slip to 40%.
There are no recent surveys of African American enthusiasm or intentions to vote. Nevertheless, no one can say that blacks will turn out at a 65% rate and vote 95% for Barack Obama, not with the unprecedented emergence of several groups of black ministers working to dissuade their congregations from voting for Obama or even voting at all.
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