The new Politico/GWU/Battleground poll seems to me, from a quick perusal of its internals, to have produced solid and non-quirky results consistent with several other surveys. It has a D+3 sample, and shows an Obama margin of 3 on the presidential ballot test and a 1 point Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot.
Which raises the question: Is the conventional assumption that Republicans will continue to hold the House sound?
It may not be. Two other recent likely voter polls have produced an R+1 and a tied generic congressional ballot. So let’s say that right now the congressional ballot is tied. The closest we’ve come to an even national popular vote for the House in recent years was in 2000, when Republicans had a narrow popular vote margin of .3 percent, and ended up with a narrow 221-212 margin in seats. An even popular vote tends to translate into pretty even results in seats split between the two parties. In the wave elections of 2006, 2008, and 2010, by contrast, the parties’ popular vote margins ranged from 6 to 8 percentage points. The middling GOP majorities of 2002 and 2004 were based on national popular vote margins of more than 2 1/2 points.
Read More at The Weekly Standard. By William Kristol.






Fiscal Cliffhanger
“Read my lips: no-new-taxes”, famously said George H W Bush, one of my favorite presidents. He raised them, and it’s argued that this action cost himself conservative votes during his unsuccessful reelection bid.
Tax hikes are a Republican no-no. At least theoretically.
Conservative icon Ronald Reagan is accused of signing the biggest tax increase in American history: $85.3 billion! This 1982 move isn’t usually associated with his great legacy.
Raising taxes usually means job producers horde assets, hide them overseas, and fire employees- a lot of them! Some businesses simply close their doors, bid workers farewell, and morph into new enterprises.
Congressional Republicans anxious to look good after the Obama reelection victory seem poised to ignore dire consequences and raise taxes to benefit themselves- not Americans with big legislative salaries and astronomical perks.
Caught in the crossfire are a (barely) working class and (almost out of) business owners crushed in a vice grip squeezing economic lifeblood out with no regard for their survival.
Big name Republicans on Capitol Hill are talking compromise with Obama, from Speaker of the House Boehner on down.
Brent Bozell, Media Research Center founder and premiere organizer of conservative fund raisers, has threatened to have donors stop funding congressmen who support this tax increase and the GOP itself.
Very ominous.
I’m interested to see how this fiscal cliffhanger turns out.
Will Republicans push conservatives and the country off the fiscal cliff to save themselves when the 2014 mid term elections roll around?
Stay tuned, broke fans- same broke time; same broke channel.
Cap Black, The Hood Conservative & One Man Tea Party. warns:
” Wear a parachute cuz I think the GOP on Capitol Hill will push us off the fiscal cliff to save their careers!”
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