A series of new polls show Barack Obama has become so politically radioactive that even many Democrats do not want him at the head of their ticket in 2012.
Everyone understands, if polls are accurate and the elections are free of fraud, the Republican Party will do well tomorrow. But how well? The Gallup Organization, a non-partisan polling firm respected for its work since the Eisenhower administration, has a new poll indicating Republicans lead Democrats in a generic ballot match-up by 15 points. Gallup tries to put that into perspective thus:
[T]his year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House [of Representatives] voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
The blowout is two-fold: more Republicans are likely to turn out tomorrow, and independents overwhelmingly support the Republicans. While 75 percent of Republicans or those who “lean Republican” are “absolutely certain” they will vote tomorrow, only 68 percent of Democrats feel the same. Gallup’s poll found the number of respondents who called themselves Democrats and those who called themselves independents each totaled 32 percent. But independents “tilt toward the Republican candidate by a sizable 59% to 31% margin.”
This is hardly surprising. Many independents are more conservative than the Republican establishment that has controlled the party for well over a decade.
The General Ballot Matters…This Time
Analysts usually dismiss generic ballot measures, because voters do not choose generic parties; every race pits two local candidates against each other. (I have often written this.) However, that is not true in a nationalized election. When a midterm becomes a national referendum on the president or the party in power, party designations make all the difference, and incumbents who would normally be safe are swept out of office. Barack Obama gets this. (I have not often written that.) He told supporters, “My name may not be on the ballot, but our agenda for moving forward is on the ballot.” (Incidentally, it has not been reported just who the president hoped to turn out: he spoke on the national radio program of Al Sharpton, whose racial incitement in Crown Heights in 1991 helped whip up riots that left a number of residents dead and 150-200 people assaulted or injured. Heaven knows why Obama wants those followers to show up at the polls.)
He’s right. And that is 60 percent of the Democrats’ problem. The other 40 percent is the Democrats’ record.
65 Percent Say: Throw Them All Out
A new Rasmussen poll reveals the extent of voter anger at Congress: “65% of Likely U.S. Voters say if they had the option next week, they would vote to get rid of the entire Congress and start all over again.”
Congress knows who is to blame for their predicament. And a growing number of Obama’s own party members want him forced aside before he can ruin another election.