Reading some of the polls on the presidential election can be confusing. But among the more reliable surveys, two stand out as more well-grounded: Rasmussen and the Battle Ground Poll. The latest Rasmussen survey of American’s partisan identification shows Party registrations as follows: 36.8% are Republican, 34.2% are Democrats, and 29% are Independents.
There are no current surveys of how many Democrats will vote for Mitt Romney or how many Republicans will vote for Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the latest George Washington University Battle Ground Poll shows Romney getting 92% of the Republican vote while Obama is getting just 87% of the Democrat vote.
Running Rasmussen’s number on registrations with the Battle Ground Poll’s data, we find that Romney’s 92 % of Republicans gives him 33.856 points, and Obama’s 87% of Democrats gives him 29.754 points. Rasmussen says that 29% of registered voters are Independents. The Battle Ground poll says that Independents support Romney 56/40.
This results in 16.24 more points for Romney and 11.6 more points for Obama.
When the numbers for both men are added up, Romney is getting 50.09 – not very impressive until we consider Obama’s 41.354. There are 8.556 points of“undecided” voters. Two separate surveys of how undecided voters eventually vote show that at least 80% go with the challenger. This gives Romney another 6.8448 for a grand total of 56.9348, and Obama gets another 1.7112 for a total of 43.0652. Under this formula, Obama trails by 8.736 points.
Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows Romney leading 51/45 among likely voters. This means that a guy doing a little research and using a $10.00 calculator produced an aggregate score that is just 2.8448 off Gallup’s 51/45- well within any standard margin of error.
Since Romney is nearly maxed out with Republicans at 92% (George Bush got 93% in 2004 ) and Obama is at 87% support among Democrats (down from 90% in 2008), aren’t the “undecideds” actually Democrats? In that case, aren’t we playing with “house money” in that these people are SUPPOSED to be supporting Obama? With less than three weeks to go, should a “winning” candidate be trying to win back members of his own Party?
Final thought: this doesn’t factor in the huge enthusiasm gap between Republicans itching to vote and Democrats dreading November 6th.
Photo credit: terrellaftermath
Please share this post with your friends and comment below. If you haven’t already, take a moment to sign up for our free newsletter above and friend us on Twitter and Facebook to get real time updates.
Follow @WestJournalism
Loading ...
No wonder he is so stupid, he is huffing glue!!! LOL
The POLLSTERS are just a bunch of NEWS MEDIA JERKS. It depends upon which poll you are referring to. MOST of thje POLLSTERS are so much for OBOZO – the anointed one – . These poll people only check on people whm they know are from whcih side to the tracks they want the poll to reflect.
GALLUP is most likely the only poll that will give you a true pulse of what is happening.
Obama, you had better pray, no, sorry, you don’t pray, anyway, you had better do something because when Governor Romney becomes President Romney and he unseals your application for Occidental and Harvard, the gig will be up and you will probably be tried for treason.
The AG Eric Holder will also be tried once President Romney reverses your executive privilege and exposes your participation in Fast and Furious. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is a whole lot of it soon coming your way.
How I pray you are right.
This is why the boon cannot allow Romney to win. If Romney wins everything will come out and the Federal Marshals will be looking for the boon and his buddies to arrest them for treason. That`s whats wrong with demo-rats. They only think of today and tomorrow but never about next week when they are going to get caught.
Frauds Commit Fraud–It’s Just What They Do
Across the pan-Islamic world celebratory shouts of “Alluah-Ahkbar!” will echo through the mountains when the ‘Manchurian’ Muslim from Mombasa fraudulently secures victory in the election and maintains his ongoing criminal usurpation of the presidency of the most powerful nation in human history.
Obama’s ultimate goal is the advance of the world domination agenda of the murderous cult of Islam and the subjugation of all non-Muslims as dhimmis under Sharia law within a word-wide Islamic Caliphate. Obama is an enemy agent of Islam.
I think that on Nov. 6th at approximately 9:53 p.m. or there-about Mitt Romney will declare victory in the presidential election, then at apx. 10:02 p.m. or there-about Obama will too declare himself the winner.
Pandemonium will ensue on television, over the internet, the radio, and in the morning newspapers.
The main stream media will gather around their superhero and argue for his legitimate victory. Vicious efforts at intimidating those in the Electoral College will be unleashed from numerous liberal-socialist quarters.
Blacks will hit the streets purportedly protesting the injustice heaped upon their superhero prompted on by the so-called “Reverend” Wright types, the ‘Farrahkans,’ and the ‘Sharptons.’ Then ignorant cowards within the elite Republican establishment will fold under the threatening ‘black-lash’ for fear of the main stream media coloring them racist.
The establishment Republicans have again and again demonstrated that they have no spine–no belly for fighting. Greedy cowards–almost all of them.
Obama’s camp will steal the election because they can.
Nobody has stood up when Obama ran rough-shod over the Constitution. Often times, such as with the NDAA, many Republicans have even been complicit in advancing Obama’s agenda to controvert the Constitution.
Nobody has stood up when Obama presented ‘We the People’ with proven forged documents in a cover-up of unparalleled magnitude. The cover-up of the single most sinister crime in American history: the criminal usurpation of the presidency.
Nobody has stood up when Obama’s ineligibility was made blatantly obvious and the fact that he criminally usurped the office of the presidency had become an indisputable truth.
None of our elected representatives have stood up in defense of the voice of ‘We the People’ and the Constitution–even when the Republican party again and again across the country deprived its own members of their voice in government at State Caucuses and Primaries such as the infamous debacle in Shreveport and the teleprompter fiasco in Tampa and I see no reason to expect that anybody will stand up when Obama steals the election on November 6th.
Liars lie and thieves steal, crackheads smoke their crack, scammers scam, and frauds like Obama commit fraud. Has not your own life’s experience with other human beings demonstrated this fact to you yet?
The Bible teaches that ‘He who sins is a slave to sin.’ Individuals gravitate to the sin in which they are held in spiritual bondage. Obama’s slavery to committing acts of fraud has repeatedly manifested itself in his behaviour as in such instances of fraud as the composite characters he purportedly composed in his “biography” and the fraudulent Social Security numbers he has asserted as legitimate and his own.
Obama will steal the election and get away with it because he can. There is nobody who will stand up to stop him. Fraud is in his very nature. It’s just what he does.
Chris, As much as it hurts to say it. You are so on the ball with your prediction. My feel is that if Our votes actually get processed and not swallowed as democrat votes by the adjustable voting machines, if the number of illegals and dead folks do not push the number of Democrats over our votes and Romney looks like he is winning. That is when Obama will pull something like a major staged attack on our country, Rather like the currently running TV series “resolve” I think it is called. Then he has to suspend the election for the safety of the folks and our right to vote goes out the door with all our other rights he has stolen in the last 4 years. Your approach sound even more likely.
Finally, the polls are making sense. One can’t have a majority of Americans disapproving Obama performance and having him run neck-and-neck with Romney. None of that made any sense. Now, that everyone sees that Romney is not a monster and is competent.
You are correct, but your answer brings up the bigger question: why have the polls been so skewed and if the polls have been so manipulated, why should we not expect the election results to also be tampered with? When Romney wins the election and Obama declares himself the winner none of that is going to make any sense either. Please read the long comment I posted titled ‘Frauds Commit Fraud–That’s Just What They Do.’
Chris, once again you are on the ball. I saw the results of a fake election using the new machines, the candidate with the winning number of votes ended us as being show as the losing candidate.. That was on a unit installed. Then there is the vote counting by a spanish company widly known to have unreliable results, owned I believe by Soros. They are counting our votes. Then there are the 11 million illegals, he is hiring, Add to that the 30-40% owned by the government through welfare. and the 500 members of congress most of whom are owned by Obama either through money or intimidation.
I just voted today for the next President of the United States of America, Mitt Romney.
I also just donated to Mitt’s campaign again and I am aslo glad to do so.
GOD BLESS AMERICA
Of course Romney’s winning in the true polls not the ones the lying lamestream media fixes to make it look like their guy is ahead. But, amongst the real American people Romney has always been ahead. He will win. Pray hard, America, that Obama and his friends in crime do not steal the 2012 elections.
Over three years ago I posted this hardcore message on another conservative forum: If America is the womb and Liberty is the fetus then Obama is the abortionist. I was so spot on, huh? He’s deliberately attempting to kill us. GOD BLESS AMERICA AND PROTECT US FROM OUR ENEMIES.
The sodomite, Barack Osama Hussein Sotaro’s British supporters are getting desperate. Now they are claiming that Black people are all homosexuals. I guess they know that the half breed fraudster in the White House is losing the Black vote, and his crew are prepared to use anything to gain any votes, even votes from Britain. Obama has definitely lost.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2220120/White-people-likely-gay-Huge-study-reveals-highest-proportion-homosexual-people-African-American-community.html
Late in the evening on Nov. 6th conservatives across America will be paralyzed by disbelief in what they witness on cable TV. Obama is going to steal the election. He owns the Electoral College and they will make their decision just as the Iranian judge in Georgia, judge Malihi, did when, after warning Obama’s attorneys not to show up in court at their own peril, and after an overwhelming amount of evidence of Obama’s ineligibility to be on the ballot in Georgia was presented, the judge STILL ruled in Obama’s favor. That’s the type of decision we can expect from the Electoral College.