Reading some of the polls on the presidential election can be confusing. But among the more reliable surveys, two stand out as more well-grounded: Rasmussen and the Battle Ground Poll. The latest Rasmussen survey of American’s partisan identification shows Party registrations as follows: 36.8% are Republican, 34.2% are Democrats, and 29% are Independents.
There are no current surveys of how many Democrats will vote for Mitt Romney or how many Republicans will vote for Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the latest George Washington University Battle Ground Poll shows Romney getting 92% of the Republican vote while Obama is getting just 87% of the Democrat vote.
Running Rasmussen’s number on registrations with the Battle Ground Poll’s data, we find that Romney’s 92 % of Republicans gives him 33.856 points, and Obama’s 87% of Democrats gives him 29.754 points. Rasmussen says that 29% of registered voters are Independents. The Battle Ground poll says that Independents support Romney 56/40.
This results in 16.24 more points for Romney and 11.6 more points for Obama.
When the numbers for both men are added up, Romney is getting 50.09 – not very impressive until we consider Obama’s 41.354. There are 8.556 points of“undecided” voters. Two separate surveys of how undecided voters eventually vote show that at least 80% go with the challenger. This gives Romney another 6.8448 for a grand total of 56.9348, and Obama gets another 1.7112 for a total of 43.0652. Under this formula, Obama trails by 8.736 points.
Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows Romney leading 51/45 among likely voters. This means that a guy doing a little research and using a $10.00 calculator produced an aggregate score that is just 2.8448 off Gallup’s 51/45- well within any standard margin of error.
Since Romney is nearly maxed out with Republicans at 92% (George Bush got 93% in 2004 ) and Obama is at 87% support among Democrats (down from 90% in 2008), aren’t the “undecideds” actually Democrats? In that case, aren’t we playing with “house money” in that these people are SUPPOSED to be supporting Obama? With less than three weeks to go, should a “winning” candidate be trying to win back members of his own Party?
Final thought: this doesn’t factor in the huge enthusiasm gap between Republicans itching to vote and Democrats dreading November 6th.
Photo credit: terrellaftermath