When you hear talk about Barack Obama winning Pennsylvania in November, remember that’s all it is: “talk.” Obama won Pennsylvania 55/44 in 200,8 beating the hapless John McCain by 620,478 votes. But that was then, and this is now.
There are several serious obstacles to an Obama victory, not the least of which is the Commonwealth’s successful efforts to foreclose a large amount of Democrat voter fraud.
The Pennsylvania voter ID law has the potential to singlehandedly stop 750,000 fraudulent votes, more than enough to overcome Obama’s margin in 2008 if all other factors were equal (which they are not. )
Pennsylvania’s Democrats are running in circles, bumping into walls trying to figure out how they can get anything like the number of fraudulent voters they need to win. They realize that relying on a court’s finding that the law is unconstitutional is iffy at best. Pennsylvania’s Photo ID to Vote law was modeled on the Indiana State Voter ID law, which has already been found constitutional by the Supreme Court (6 to 3). So it is doubtful the Court would even hear another case on the matter.
The pressure on the Democrats to try to win honestly, a daunting task, will be enormous. The enthusiasm among Pennsylvania’s blacks, who made up 12% of those voting, and young voters who comprised another 19% in 2008 is down drastically. While both groups intend to vote for Obama in large 10 to 1 and 2 to 1 ratios, at this late date, neither group has an enthusiasm rate that would make these rates significant.
Moreover, the fact that there is a photo ID requirement to vote in Pennsylvania is not understood by most of the very people who will be unable to vote without such ID. How can the Democrats help people who they can’t identify to solve a problem they don’t know they have? The short answer is they can’t. They won’t have the ground game or the money to campaign AND work effective voter fraud operations simultaneously.
By their own estimate, they must straighten this out before the middle of September. Anyone with experience in organizing large numbers of people knows that can’t be done.
Pennsylvania is 52% Catholic. McCain won Catholics 52/48, and efforts by the Catholic Bishops will likely increase white Catholic turnout. Romney leads with white Catholics 57/37. Pennsylvania is out of reach for Obama already.
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Photo credit: J. Stephen Conn (Creative Commons)