A poll taken monthly by Rasmussen has received very little attention from the Obama campaigners in the mainstream media. It is the poll of Party Affiliation and it is published on the Rasmussen site going back to 2004.
Why should this poll be taken at least as seriously as any polling result by any polling company in the U.S.? Simple. Because the “…poll of party identification corresponds with the results of national elections.”
Look at the results in various election years since 2004 as they compare with Rasmussen’s political party identification numbers. In 2004, George Bush narrowly won re-election in the Electoral College 286-251 after taking Ohio with its 20 electoral votes. The GOP also picked up 3 senate seats and 3 house seats.
And the party affiliation numbers were also very close, favoring Democrats with an advantage of 1.5%.
Move on to 2006 and the lingering Mark Foley scandal and Democrats enjoyed a spread of 6.1% on Election Day. Sure enough, Democrats picked up 31 house seats and 5 in the senate.
In 2008, the year of The One and the most aggressive media campaign in decades, Democrats had an Election Day advantage of 7.6%. Also, through 8 months of the year, the Party “…had identification [of] over 40%.” Naturally, on election night media commentators were euphoric as Democrats picked up not only the White House, but 21 house seats and 8 in the senate!
But then came 2010 and “The Rise of the Tea Party.” The Democrat edge in voter identification/registration continued to shrink throughout the year, winding up at 2.9% by October, far less than half the 7.6 total which swept Obama into the White House. And finally, in November, Republicans gained the advantage at 1.3%, a swing of 4.2%. And what happened in that midterm election was one for the record books as the GOP won 6 senate seats—not counting the January Scott victory in Massachusetts—and an unprecedented 63 seats in the house, “…more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.”
After a back and forth year in 2011, one in which the category “other” actually topped Democrats in the August Rasmussen poll and the lead changed hands a total of 6 times, we now come to the election of 2012. Republicans have enjoyed an advantage in each month of 2012, the largest being 4.3% in August. There are 2 key points to remember: Democrats won elections in 2006 and 2008 with Election Day advantages of 6.1 and 7.6; Republicans won in 2004 and 2010, the first with a DISADVANTAGE of 1.6% and the second with an advantage of just 1.3%. “This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage.”
So what is likely to occur on Election Day with a Republican advantage unprecedented during the past 4 elections? There will be no +9 edge in Democrat sampling, something we’ve grown accustomed to in countless polls over the past several months. Naturally, the media will continue its 24/7 efforts to put Obama back in the White House. It has even been reported that Gloria Allred has an “October Surprise,” all ready to be sprung on Mitt Romney.
But with Romney up in Republican identification numbers and with independents nationwide and in most swing states, it looks as though Obama will be an ex-President come the evening of November 6th.
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