The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll gives President Obama an eight-point lead in Ohio, and the RealClearPolitics average shows Obama ahead by 5.5 percent. Obama beat John McCain in Ohio by 4.8 percent, and if we are to believe these polls, President Obama is on track to beat Mitt Romney there by an even wider margin — despite the down economic indicators and a lack of excitement for the president.

But that’s not going to happen.

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With a month to go in this election, the one real performance indicator we have for Ohio — early absentee ballot requests — shows Republicans have narrowed the gap since 2008 in every county on record in the state.

Two of the most populated counties, Franklin and Summit, are on track to narrow the gap 10 percent and 27 percent, respectively. College professors in Ohio who have begun to keep track of this county data have shared it with my organization, American Majority Action (AMA).

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested: 33 percent were requested by registered Democrats and 19 percent were requested by registered Republicans — a 14-point gap. So far in 2012, only 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans — only a five-point gap.

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Read More at By Ned Ryun.

Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore (Creative Commons)