A new survey of 900 registered Catholic voters holds devastating news for Barack Obama that cannot be overstated. It says the 54% of Catholic voter support he had in 2008 has dwindled to just 27% (MoE +/- 3 points), a historic low level that no one running for president can survive.
This 27% Catholic support for Obama will have important consequences for Obama and his Party in several states with sizable Catholic populations. While some might attempt to belittle this gap by pointing to the fact that only about 24% are “adherent Catholics”, that argument is defeated by the fact that the survey found that 73% of respondents said they cannot support Obama because of his mandate forcing Catholic institutions to commit abortions and distribute contraceptive devices to their employees. It says that by a 3-to -1 margin, self-identified Catholics are angry and insulted by Obama’s attempts to dictate their religious practice. Numbers this large indicate that whether these voters do or don’t attend Mass on a regular basis has nothing to do with these feelings of being insulted and threatened by this president.
By state here are the percentages of Catholics and the Electoral Vote value of each one: Pennsylvania (53%) 20 EVs, New Jersey (39%) 14 EVs New Hampshire (35%) 4 EVs, Wisconsin (29%) 10 EVs, Florida (26%) 29 EVs New Mexico (26%) 5 EVs, Minnesota (25%) 10EVs Colorado (24%) 9 EVs, Ohio (24%) 18 EVs, Iowa (23%) 6 EVs, Michigan (23%) 16 EVs, Missouri (20%) 10 EVs, Nevada (24%) 6 EVs, total 143 EVs.
With the exception of New Jersey, which is probably too far gone and has a very weak Republican Senatorial candidate, all of these states can be won by Mitt Romney because of the lopsided anti- Obama sentiment among Catholics. The most difficult of them to win are likely to be Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and Michigan. When states that are “tied” or that Romney is winning are separated out, just Minnesota remains as a tough nut to crack among states that have at least a 20% Catholic populations. Holding Minnesota’s 10 Electoral votes aside the EVs from these states add up to 133.
When combined with the 153 “in the bag” EVs from the South (even losing Virginia’s 11 EVs which is now a tie anyway) and other small states around the nation, the grand total is 286.
Add to this the fact that the Catholic Church will start a campaign after Labor Day reminding Catholics that Obamacare destroys their religious freedoms, and Romney is in very good shape. The Democrats can have everything else. They can try to talk away the right track/wrong track numbers that show 31/62 wrong track.
They can try to convince voters that 44 months of 8%+ unemployment means nothing, or that Obamacare robbing Medicare of $700 billion means nothing, or his support for gay marriage and abortion (even partial birth and born alive infanticides) mean nothing; but nothing is going to improve Obama’s numbers with Catholics beyond nibbling around the edges. Even if the 27% improves by half to 41%, it will not help Obama. No Democrat President has ever lost the Catholic vote and won the presidency, and Obama is way too far away at the end of August to win the Catholic vote.
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