Tuesday’s IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll (TIPP), released just before the last debate, was another example of a headline that was not supported by its accompanying message. While TIPP showed Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney 47.4%/ 43.4%, that leaves 9.8 points of undecided. The statistical reality is that 80% of the undecided vote will go to the challenger giving Romney 51.24%; but it gets worse for Obama.
Obama wins the Northeast 48/40, but the 10% of undecided will change a region that should be “locked up” into one requiring attention. TIPP also shows Obama’s numbers with all age groups down from what he got in 2008; even females are failing to step up for him. He is down 4 points and seeing 7 points of undecided with women. He’s off 7 points with men, who are also 7% undecided.
In order to get blacks up to even 86% (they gave Obama 95% in 2008), TIPP had to mix in Hispanics – this is not good news for Obama.
The Party support TIPP reported is very, very suspect. They say Romney is getting just 86% of Republicans to support him. No credible poll shows Republican support for Romney at less than 91%, and most set it at 92%. TIPP’s report that Independents support Romney by just 11 points with 13 points of undecided voters is also very suspect.
Notwithstanding the twisted numbers TIPP uses, it still managed to fall on the great Democrat “electoral third rail” – the Catholic vote. Ten days ago, TIPP reported that Barack Obama held a 46/43 lead among Catholic voters. That lead is gone. He is now losing the Catholic vote 49/41 – a 12 point turnaround, more than one point a day. This is the Democrat presidential “electoral third rail” because no Democrat has ever been elected president without winning the Catholic vote. Obama is not even close to the Catholic vote.
Of course, TIPP used the standard liberal polling skew of Party breakdown. They used 37% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 32% Independent, the 2008 breakdown. Given the huge 8 to 15 point enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, we are not going to see this breakdown next month.