The unskewed polls show Mitt Romney leading by 7.8 points and for good reason.
Barack Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008, not doing better with any group he won, and not closing the gap with any group he lost.
Looking at his campaign, Barack Obama appears to need three cards for an inside straight to win reelection.
He has the two end “cards”, his Media Cheerleaders at one end and the power of incumbency at the other. Filling in the “cards” between them to gain a winning “hand” looks to be beyond Obama’s reach.
Here are the “cards” he needs to fill in his inside straight.
The female vote: he won this group by 13 points in 2008, and now the Battleground Poll (BP) tells us he is trailing with white women, who will make up at least 39% of the female vote by 9 points. A nine point lead among the first 39% makes getting to a 50/50 tie a tough job (and duplicating a final tally lead of 13 points almost impossible.) He’s not pulling this card.
The “Jewish” vote card was one that helped him in 2008. While they consist of only 2% of the vote, Jews who are a “canary in the coal mine” indicator gave him 78% of their vote. No Democrat has ever won the presidency while getting less than 68% of the Jewish vote. Obama is now at 59% with little chance of improving- not much chance of pulling this card.
The African-American card: he got 95% of this group. Silly 94/0 media “poll” aside, there are no credible polls that show Obama doing anything like that; and for the first time ever, black ministers are telling their congregations not to vote at all. He is not pulling this card.
The young vote card: Obama got 66% of this vote in 2008, but the latest survey of young voters shows Obama getting just 61% of this group, so he’s not getting any help from this “card” either.
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