Not Surprisingly, Democrats Are Falling Behind In Enthusiasm

A just-released Politico/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll (PGWUBTP) says that Barack Obama is leading 49/48, a statistical tie reached before the debate. That is the extent of the good news for Obama.  This is another poll whose underpinnings fall short of delivering hard data to justify a lead for Obama.

Here is the really bad news for Obama:

Democrats who Rasmussen reports are registered at a rate 2.6% less than Republicans (in 2010, Republicans enjoyed an edge of 1.3%, and the roof fell in on the Democrats) are only 73% “extremely likely” to vote. Republicans who are sitting on that lead already are 86% “extremely likely” to vote.

This produces an actual lead of 52/46 for Mitt Romney among those “extremely likely” to vote,  a 9 point swing in his favor in the last two weeks when Obama was “leading” 50/47.

“But how is Obama doing among his key voting blocs?”

White voters who will make up 2/3 of voters favor Romney by 15% and are 82% “extremely likely” to vote.

By contrast, PGWUBTP’s survey message said this about other major groups: “only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the ‘extremely likely’ to vote category.”  This is not good for Obama and his Party.

Then there is the question of how “independents” will vote. PGWUBTP answered that one just as decisively. Its findings revealed that independent voters favor Romney by 16 points, 51/35, which is an improvement of 4 points in just one week.  This is a number that has held steady for at least a month.

The 14 point of “undecided” voters suggests that when the votes are finally counted, Romney will get over 60% of this bloc’s votes.

Those fraudulent polls showing Obama with a big lead are coming back to haunt him and his cheerleaders in the media, says PGWUBTP.

They cite another subtle but important concern for Obama in the fact that by 61/31, those surveyed believe Obama will win. This, the pollsters believe, is dampening the enthusiasm of his supporters to go out and vote. Changing that perception in a month is a tall order.

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Photo Credit: DonkeyHotey (Creative Commons)