A just-released Gallup survey of voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election and indicate they will vote again in November holds some bad news for Barack Obama. Among the questions asked of its respondents, Gallup asked if the person being surveyed was planning to switch his/her party vote to now support either Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama. Of those who had voted for John McCain in 2008, 5% now supported Barack Obama. Of those original Obama supporters, 9% reported their intention to vote for Republican Romney.
When this 9% switch is applied to Obama’s raw popular vote total, the 5% switch is factored against John McCain’s raw vote, and both are compared, the difference becomes a dead heat with an insignificant 17,000 vote lead for Obama.
The telling data in this report is the 4% undecided – which breaks against the incumbent to a high degree and the 11% that refused to say for whom they voted in 2008. This adds credence to the possibility that a substantial number of 2008 Obama supporters have strong feelings of “buyer’s remorse.” It is, after all, very much easier to find someone who says “I voted for Obama but I’m sorry and I won’t do that again,” than to locate a 2008 voter who says “You know, I voted for McCain but I’m sorry. I wish I had voted for Obama.”
Gallup also tells us that a high percentage of independents (18%) have switched as have Easterners- those with a high school diploma and unmarried men all reporting a 15% switch.
Since Independents went to Obama 52/ 44 in 2008, and every indication is that these voters who likely make up about 33% of the total turnout have soured on him, this is significant bad news for Barack Obama. We know white males are running away from Obama as are the young voters who carried him to victory in 2008. Consequently, the 15% switch among “unmarried men” most likely means that of the reduced number of young voters expected to cast a ballot in November, Obama should not count on much help.
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