The National Journal (NJ) has done its part to make us believe that Barack Obama is beating Mitt Romney. Without regard for current realities, they nonetheless pressed on but could not muster more than a 47/47 tie between the two. N J used 2008 as its projected turnout model as if 2010 never happened, and we have all been in a state of suspended animation since November 2008. For liberals, this is a comforting day dream; but it has little connection to reality.
As per Rasmussen, in 2010, Republicans held a slim 1.3 point Party registration edge (not Party Identification – but actual Party registration). That election brought a historic beating for Democrats at every level from the Senate down to state assemblies. Rasmussen’s current numbers show a 4.3 point registration edge for Republicans, more than THREE TIMES their 2010 edge.
Last weekend, Gallup reported that Republican enthusiasm is at 64 percent, 16 points higher than Democrat enthusiasm to vote. These two sets of numbers wipe away any argument for using the 2008 voter turnout model as NJ has done.
By using a 2008 turnout model, NJ is saying we will see an electorate of 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent Independent voters go to the polls next month. These numbers are seriously skewed. When they are un-skewed, N J’s poll actually shows that Romney is in a solid lead.
Using Rasmussen’s reported actual Party registrations of 37.6% Republican, 33.3% Democrat, and 30% Independent voters shows that N J committed a sampling skew of +2.7 Democrats and - 8.6 Republicans. This resulted in an 11.3 point skew toward Obama. If all of its gyrations and skews could only get Obama to a tie, Romney is in very good shape.
Reviewing Rasmussen’s generic Congressional ballot numbers strengthens the charge that N J’s numbers are faulty. They reveal that not only are Republicans leading 45/41, but there is a 20- month record of such leads for Republicans who have led for 36 of the 40 surveys. Since January 2011, Democrats have only tied Republicans twice and have been ahead by 1 point and 2 points once each. Republicans have never been below 41 %. These facts show that not only is N.J wrong about the presidential race; its claim of a 45/43 generic lead for Democrats is wrong as well.
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Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore (Creative Commons)
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all i can say is look out america the republican party is going to be back in charge and we will see job growth,debt and deficit reduction and alot of govt workers heading toward the private sector or welfare
As a aging blue collar person, I have considered myself a Democrat all my life. I am now and have several times in the past, been forced to vote Republican. Since Truman, we have not had a sensible true democrat running on the Democrat ticket. All Americans must understand that we can not have it both ways! We are either a; working free enterprise people or we are a welfare state of Socialist. It can not be both ways.
I am a union member. It hurts me to see so many blame the unions for our problems. They are not! During the years that unions were at their strongest, were the years that our economy was at its best.
Regardless of which party leads this great nation, we must all remember that the role of government is to provide the essentials. and stay out of the way. We must look at the numbers and the results. Etc. Since we begun the, Drug enforcement Agency, the amount of drugs have increased twenty fold. The cost of running the agency has increased twenty fold. Welfare is exactly the same. A complete failure and costly disaster. Our Public Housing are a crime scene. We now have between 7 and 10 million violent street gang members that we must deal with, all a result of welfare. For one to appreciate light, one must know darkness. For people to understand the need for education and work, they must know hunger. Romney is our only hope. Obama is a mistake that never should have happened.