The latest Gallup survey delivers two pieces of bad news to the Democrats, neither of which can be spun away by clever framing. Gallup told us that by 53/45, Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting out Obama. A look at the chart accompanying Gallup’s report shows that the Republican arrow is pointing upward while the Democrat arrow is stuck on flat.
When Gallup’s report breaks down voter enthusiasm by group, it gets worse for Democrats. It showed that non whites (read: African Americans) were 74% enthusiastic at this point in 2008 versus just 48% today. Among 18 to 29 year olds, the comparison is just as bad with 2008 enthusiasm at 76% but just 48% today. These numbers alone spell “game set match! You lose Mr. Obama.” Forget about Obama’s war on Catholics and sky high gas prices; huge drops in enthusiasm like these cannot be ignored. If the Democrats can’t find a way to turn this around, they are cooked.
Given the rising Republican enthusiasm numbers, no amount of Democrat spin can put lipstick on this pig. Saying that the drop of enthusiasm is equally distributed between Democrats and Republicans is the stuff of wishful thinking.
More bad news for Democrats comes from a careful examination of the latest Rasmussen survey of voter identification.
The March 1 report brought news that for the third straight month Democrat self-identification fell to a new low at 32.4% while Republican self-identification rose to 36%.
This is the largest advantage Republicans have had ever; that’s ever, as in never before.
The Party ID advantage has grown by 1.3% since the Republican landslide in 2010. The + 3.6% GOP edge is not an outlining “blip” but the product of a continuing trend.
Since this “Party ID” number comes from talking to “adults”, and “adults” are less likely to actually vote combined with Republican enthusiasm, this translates to still more GOP supporters who will show up in November.
All of these facts are very encouraging for Republicans, but the real money shot is this: Since Election Day 2008, Democratic Party identification has fallen from near 42% to just over 32%. In this same span, Republicans have moved from a -9 points to a + 3.6 in comparison to Democrat numbers.
Remember these facts when you hear a halfwit like George Will flatly predict an Obama victory.