The numbers surrounding the “youth vote” – where it is likely to go and how small it is likely to be – spell trouble for Barack Obama.
1) In 2008, 51% of eligible voters aged 18 to 29 showed up to vote. They represented 18% of the total vote and supported Barack Obama over John McCain 66/34. Nevertheless, history tells us that when it actually comes down to showing up at the polls to vote, this group has a track record of falling short of their “declared” numbers. In other words, the “youth voters” can talk a good game but often don’t deliver. This is why the 58% who say they intend to vote, combined with new polling data on how they intend to vote, has to be alarming to Team Obama.
Another trip wire presented by the “youth vote” is the sizable aversion to affirmative action expressed by white 18 to 24 year olds. Maybe as much as 1/3 of today’s “youth voters” were not caught up in the Obama “excitement” in 2008 as they were too young to cast a ballot. It is quite likely this subgroup will turn out to vote at a level somewhat higher than the overall 18 to 29 year old group. This is more bad news for Barack Obama.
A new Zogby poll done for the Service Employees International Union strongly suggests that if Obama actually does manage to win the votes of this group, his winning margin will be smaller, and the pool of votes they represent will most certainly be smaller. This year, both of these measurements will work against Obama as much as they worked for him in 2008.
The Zogby survey of likely voters concludes that Mitt Romney is now trailing Obama among young voters by just 49/41, which is a 17 point fall for the president and a 6 point gain for Romney over what John McCain was able to garner. The hidden benefit for Romney in these numbers is that they come from a survey done before Congressman Paul Ryan was tapped to be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.
Given the surge of enthusiasm Americans have exhibited since Ryan’s selection, it is not a stretch to say that Romney’s “youth vote” numbers will climb; and in the zero sum game of counting votes, that climb will come at Obama’s expense.
Could Romney actually win the “youth vote”? Yes; he is already just 4 points away, and the Ryan effect is just beginning to take hold.
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Lets hope the younger generation begins to grow up before they get too old.
Obama’s having a 49 to 41 lead over Romney just goes to show how much of a bad influence our schools are having on the minds of these gullible kids. At some point they will become part of the real world (“unless they decide to remain liberals of course”) and they will get a taste of just what “hope and change” is going to cost them in human rights, freedoms and personal net worth. If they don’t smarten up soon it could be too late!
I don’t believe the polls this year. On election night it will likely look like the State of Wisconsin Recall election:
Obama ahead during the day, but the lead narrows as sundown approaches. Then as polls close it will be too close to call.
After an hour closed, including Hawaii maybe but coluld be the West Coast, Romney ahead by 2% – within the margin of error.
Early in the next day, Romney wins by an overwhelming lead of 25% and secures a comfortable Electoral College lead.
It could be reported in Obama’s favor with news blackouts if Israel attacks Iran with EMP to shutdown all of Iran’s electronics.
I don’t trust Obama for a second.
Today’s Youth has gotten a lot smarter than they were in 2008. They have seen the lies and broken promises and understand if they want a good paying job with retirement, they will vote for the GOP across the board. Romney/Ryan as the top leaders of America and a strong majority of Republicans in both the House and Senate will bring the Jobs back that will generate the revenue to lower taxes on EVERYONE, restore freedoms, cut the deficient, PASS A BUDGET and reform and repeal obamacare with a system that does not force anyone into paying for health care that won’t work. America’s Youth are the future and they understand that Liberal policies do not work in creating a Strong, Well Educated Workforce. A vote for any Democrat is a vote for the dismantling of America.
NO JOBS for the young and inexperienced.
8.3% unemployment?
1.7 million not looking for about 4 months
Add to this about 3 Million new high school grads who would be ineligible foe unemployment insurance then
tell me if America’s youth would vote for Obama……………EVER!
It is particularly sad that many BLACKS could be in a 40% unemployment group driven especially by Obama’s anti-business views and his ATTITUDES!
The vaunted “youth vote” is highly overrated. They tend to vote based on emotional, not rational, appeal. Remember the Democrats enticing rallies of youths by giving away free beer in the 1990s? Talk to a 20-year old about SocSec or the deficit and his eyes glaze over; talk to a 20-year old male about free beer and lotsa babes at a rally and he’ll be there.
The youth in our country should be turning out in droves to vote this jerk out of office. He is leaving them with a ton of debt to pay off and an economy which will continue to fail as he spends spends spends. I feel so sorry for the youth. If interest rates go up much, there won’t be money for anything but paying the interest on the national debt. That is the hidden tax. I feel so sorry for the youth for they will not have it as good as I have, and eve worse if this jerk remains in office.