Gallup Polling is caught between what its thousands of interviews say about Barack Obama’s reelection chances and what it longs for the facts to be.
They do their best to hide the truth with suspiciously timed releases and obfuscating language. Nevertheless, embedded in its latest report on voter attitudes, Gallup’s delivers more bad news for Obama. Try as it did to put a happy face on the dangerously low level of “satisfaction” in the electorate, Gallup can’t do much with a 22% rate. Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Ronald Reagan all had more than 41% rates on their way to reelection, but George H.W. Bush was at 22% in 1992 when he lost to Clinton.
Voters’ sentiment on the economy shows more weakness for Obama with 56% saying it is getting worse while just 38% see it getting better. This -25 in Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index compares too favorably to Bush senior’s -31 during June of 1992 to provide any real encouragement for Obama.
Gallup’s attempt to talk up the improvement in the unemployment rate as reported last week (8.3%) runs into a serious problem since for the least two years Gallup has been saying the real rate (8.6%) is higher than being reported. When the underemployed numbers (18.7%) are included things get still worse for Obama.
The current 71% of Americans with economic matters on their minds is reminiscent of Bush senior’s ill-fated reelection campaign 20 years ago.
The Rasmussen Report shows us the sour attitudes of “uncommitted” voters which carries a subsurface problem not being focused on by many analysts. The sample is small (only 12%) but the trend is clear: just 20% of these likely voters approve of Obama’s job performance.
This 12% “uncommitted” could mean 88% of voters have already made a decision. With the enthusiasm rates among Democrats as low as they are a recovery by Obama looks less likely by the month.
Note: neither of these reports was completed before the showdown with the Catholic Church over the issue of forcing faith based institutions to offer abortion services as part of their employee health insurance plans.
If Obama is on track for reelection, there is little evidence to support it.