With all of the events in Ukraine on the news constantly, one could be forgiven thinking that Russia is the greatest threat to world peace over the near and medium term. Daily pictures of Russian armored personnel carriers and men in ski masks carrying Kalashnikovs have most definitely tarnished the Russian Federation’s reputation in the world’s eyes, and rightly so. Russia is threatening the peace and stability in Europe that has existed for decades. However, at the end of the day, Russia is not threatening to draw the world into a nuclear or global conventional conflict. In reality, they are simply threatening their neighbors, the old client states of the Soviet Union.
Iran, on the other hand, is a totally different story altogether. The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly over the years stated their desire to see the state of Israel destroyed, along with the Jewish State’s enabler, the United States of America. Now we see the fruits of the Obama administration’s foreign policy, or lack thereof, as Iran speeds down the highway towards a nuclear weapons capability. Currently with Russia not especially incentivized to help slow or reduce the Iranian threat, the speed limit for Iran has just been increased.
So let’s assume that Iran is within two years of being able to build a bomb. Let’s also assume that they continue to build and refine a long range missile capability. Two plus two equals four as always. The result will be an Islamic Jihadist state that has a long range ICBM capability with a stated desire to destroy Israel and the United States. At the very least, with the bomb, Iran will be much less deterred as far as meddling in Middle Eastern affairs and fostering terrorism globally.
Israel understands very clearly the Iranian threat. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been very vocal about Israel’s intention to prevent Iran from going nuclear. At some point, Israel will have to act on her own. She can no longer count on the United States to back her in a conflict or to prevent Iran from going nuclear. Perhaps Israel is playing the waiting game and hoping that a new administration takes command in three years, an American president that will reverse the anti-Israel policies of our current Dear Leader. However, I think it’s safe to say that absent American action, Israel will attempt to degrade the Iranian threat militarily sooner than later.
All of these scenarios are not promising for peace and stability in the world and are inherently dangerous for the United States. America will most likely be drawn into a conflict between the two powers. Our feckless foreign policy of appeasement and withdrawal have led to this place we find ourselves in. As Ronald Reagan so famously said, “The best war is the one not fought.” Peace through strength works. It is unfortunate that we have lost this principle or willfully ignored this truth. The only thing that will at this point prevent a global conflict with Iran is the hard fisted threat of overwhelming American force. We currently don’t have a leader who understands this. It is our children that will pay the price.