Almost every day we are insulted by polls that over sample Democrats to create the false impression that Barack Obama is either winning or the race is “too close to call.” These use ridiculous over sampling of Democrats, but they can’t change the facts.
While the media does an excellent job of covering up the Democrats gapping and growing enthusiasm gap careful research and cross referencing can bring out the truth. Each of these factors spells trouble for Barack Obama.
With less than three months to go compared to 2008 conservative Republican enthusiasm is 16 points higher and liberal Democrat enthusiasm is 22 points lower.
While this gap is serious on its face, it becomes still worse for the Democrats when juxtaposed with other recent elections with notable enthusiasm gaps.
Gallup had Republicans 19 points more enthusiastic to vote than Democrats in 2010. In 1994 Republicans had a 9 point edge in enthusiasm and in 2006 Democrats had also held a 9 point advantage. The phrase Res ipsa loquitur comes to mind.
The difference between the enthusiasm level of young voters and that found among seniors was summed up by a female Romney volunteer. When asked whether or not she would be voting. She said, ““I’ll be there or I’ll be dead.”
Over the years a sharply unbalanced right track/wrong track sentiment among voters has been lethal to presidential reelection campaigns. Rasmussen reports the “right track/wrong track index is 27/63 wrong track. In 1980 and again in 1992 “wrong track” was around 70%.
Gay marriage chasing Blacks away from Obama. For the first time in memory African American ministers are telling their followers not to vote for Obama.
The national average for a gallon of gas at the pump has climbed to $3.67, a rise of 34 cents since July 1.
Despite the record low 41% of Americans calling themselves pro –choice Barack Obama is doubling down on his insistence upon running pro-choice tv ads and campaigning with condom Queen Sandra Fluke.
More engaged and enthusiastic to vote senior voters favor Paul Ryan’s budget plan over Obama by 48/42. The Democrats will try to convince the remaining 10% of “undecided” seniors but that will be a tough pull. Seniors are the only group who were not fooled by Obama in 2008. More than this Republicans lead Democrats by 48/36 as to voters’ preference in handling the federal budget.