The hoopla over the party conventions is over, the debates are coming to an end, and we are now just a couple of weeks away from making an epoch decision regarding the direction of our country. If you do not know who you are voting for by now, you have either had your head in the sand, or you simply do not care and will not be voting anyway (thank God). Just about everyone else has made up their mind and is ready to cast their vote. You can be sure both parties are leaving no stone unturned to find any truly undecided voters out there. If they haven’t made up their minds by now though, they will undoubtedly be voting for the wrong reasons on election day.
I’ve been studying the various polls as to how they predict the people will vote in the Presidential election. Here’s what I found:
Men – Romney will take the majority of male voters.
Women – Obama will take single women voters, while Romney takes the married ones.
The military will be strongly behind Romney as they consider their current commander-in-chief weak.
Law enforcement will vote likewise as the military.
Business people – both men and women will be more in line with Romney.
Teachers – with Obama of course.
Gays will be more aligned with Obama’s position.
Labor Unions – even though membership in unions is in sharp decline, they will support the president.
African-Americans – as I have written, the president will get the lion’s share of votes from the black community, but it will be substantially less than what he garnered in 2008 as they are disappointed with the president’s performance (and high unemployment among blacks). Voter turnout among this group will be down.
Latinos/Hispanics – legal Latinos who are gainfully employed will vote for Romney while the illegals will vote for the president. This will be a split decision.
Youth will continue to support the president, but their numbers will be down dramatically.
Seniors – there will be a pronounced senior turnout in favor of Romney.
Churchgoers – even though conservative Christians do not like Romney’s association with Mormonism, they will see him more aligned with Christianity than the president. Also, look for Romney to score well with Catholics who do not like the president’s policies pertaining to health care.
Jews – the Jewish vote has historically gone to the Democratic candidate, but the president’s policies regarding Israel have offended many. This will also be a split decision (for the first time ever).
Asians – this will be the big prize that a lot of people are overlooking. Asian-Americans are the new #2 minority, behind Latinos and ahead of blacks. Historically, Asians have voted Democratic, but they may very well find commonality with Romney this go-around. This will be a close decision favoring Romney.
Other variables: President Obama will be unable to recapture the enthusiasm he enjoyed in 2008. Those who are now disappointed in his performance will likely not vote at all as opposed to Romney. The President’s low approval rating has hurt him tremendously and has caused disillusionment among his supporters. The thrill is gone, and people will no longer be voting for him regardless of the color of his skin.
The other variable is the rise and return of “The Silent Majority”, which has been quietly observing the president’s performance and simply does not like what they see. There is perhaps no stronger evidence of “The Silent Majority” than the State of Wisconsin’s recall elections earlier this year, where Gov. Scott Walker was kept in office despite a loud and boisterous campaign coordinated by the unions and the Left. If “The Silent Majority” believes in Romney’s message, they will understandably abandon the president. More than any other group, “The Silent Majority” will decide the November election. What is perhaps most interesting about the “Majority” is that there is no way for any of the polling organizations to know exactly who they are or be able to forecast how they will vote. Make no mistake though, “The Silent Majority” is the faction that will decide the outcome of the election and no other group. If they are fed up with how the country is being run, President Obama will be looking for a new job, regardless of the media spin.
“There are a lot of conservative people, a lot of moderate people, Republicans, Democrats, in Hollywood. It is just that the conservative people by the nature of the word itself play closer to the vest. They do not go around hot dogging it. So — but they are there, believe me, they are there.”
- Clint Eastwood at the RNC, Aug. 30, 2012
Keep the Faith!
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Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 30 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at email@example.com
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Copyright © 2012 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.
Photo credit: Cali4Beach (Creative Commons)
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