A new report indicates that, based on Barack Obama’s job approval numbers, the Republican Party has a greater than 80 percent chance of flipping the U.S. Senate in its favor this November. As midterm elections approach, Obama’s popularity continues to wane. According to analysis conducted by Real Clear Politics, the stage is set for a Republican victory even if those numbers rebound prior to voting day.
The GOP needs to take just six seats away from Democrats in order to control the Senate. Using a chart showing expected gains based on the president’s job approval, Republicans stand an overwhelming chance to reach that threshold, even if Obama’s rating reaches 49 percent. He has remained reliably below that level for much of the last three years.
Recent Gallup polling indicates the president has rebounded slightly from recent dips, indicating his job approval currently stands at 46 percent. Comparing that figure to the chart’s predictions, an election held today would result in net Republican senatorial gains of between eight and 12 seats.
The report’s takeaway is that this midterm election is the Republican Party’s to lose. Unfortunately, an all-too-often timid GOP is frustratingly adept at squandering advantages.
Still, as more and more Americans recognize the unmitigated disaster brought on by the Obama administration, any alternative can be seen as a step in the right direction. Combined with proven statistics showing the rate of incumbent losses in midterm elections, 2014 is shaping up to be a banner year for Republican candidates.
The party must make significant gains to remain in a position of power in 2016, though. The study’s projection indicates Senate elections that year will be conversely difficult for Republicans.
According to the forecast, Republicans must gain at least nine seats – for a 54-46 GOP advantage – in order to guard against similar losses. Even with a low 44 percent approval rating for Obama, the Republican Party in 2016 would stand a good chance of losing eight Senate seats.
Given the perceived ineptitude of too many Republican leaders and persistent allegations of voter fraud on the Democrat side, it is imperative that conservatives head to the polls in huge numbers this November to help regain some control over Washington, D.C.
–B. Christopher Agee
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