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Complacency Vs. Reality
I don’t want anyone on the right to become complacent with just about 100 days until the Presidential election, but history is definitely on our side! Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are virtually neck and neck in the polls, which most likely spells disaster for Mr. Obama. If you are the incumbent in a presidential election year and you’re tied in the polls with the challenger at the end of July, you may want to be looking for 2nd semester schools in the Chicago area for your two girls.
Of course, Romney could make a major gaffe, or there could be an October surprise that could change things in a beneficial way for Obama; but as it stands right now, things do not look good for his reelection campaign. Why? Because when you have the majority of the media on your side, plus you’ve outspent your opponent and you’re still tied at this point in the game… it’s time to start throwing some hail Mary’s towards the end zone!
Yes, John Kerry was ahead of George W. Bush at this point in 2004, but I really don’t think Mitt has a “Swift Boat” in his past. By comparison, George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter were both up in the polls at this time in their campaigns, and they both lost. Plus, we have to take into account the validity of polling at this juncture in the campaign. Common sense tells you that Romney’s current polling numbers are steadfast and can only go up because his numbers reflect the “anyone but Obama” mentality. On the other hand, can you really trust Obama’s numbers? Of course he has his ardent supporters, but the current Gallup poll shows him only up by one percentage point at 46%-45%. In the 2008 Presidential election, Mr. Obama received 53% of the popular vote to McCain’s 46% (the oddball 1% was thrown away on various losers.) Using the same math: 46+45=91%…sadly, we can throw away the oddball 1% again, leaving 8% who are undecided. You tell me: if the incumbent has done a bang-up job, kept most of his promises, and proven to be a good leader, would 8% still be undecided? Also, I don’t think you can trust his current 46% because there has to be a small to moderate percentage of Obama 2008 voters who don’t want to admit (in July of 2012) that they made a mistake. But when they’re in that voting booth in November, their unwavering support may just waver.
On a side note, I realize that presidential elections are not won or lost by the popular vote, but the swing state numbers closely reflect the national numbers. Barack Obama is barely holding on in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Plus, there are several states where Obama’s support is 6-12% less than it was in 2008.
So, do I believe it’s a slam-dunk for Romney? Of course not! But I do believe the reigning champion is very tired and leaning up against the ropes a lot. If Romney can just be patient, throwing a jab and a hook in here and there but continually keeping his guard up, he can knock out Obama in the final couple rounds! …8,9,10…DING, DING!
Photo credit: Cain and Todd Benson (Creative Commons)