Never mind the debates, said those very knowledgeable members of the mainstream media, as they will have no appreciable effect on the election. Whistling past the graveyard has always been a popular pastime among journalists, especially when they have the distinct feeling that their candidate might not be up to a very important, very public challenge.
Well, it has now been a week and a day since the Barack debacle in Denver, and polls have not only swung to Romney’s favor-they have done so in a startling, even unprecedented way.
Here are the numbers:
The Rasmussen Swing State Poll involves 11 states won by Obama in 2008 and believed to be competitive this time around. Romney now leads 49%-47%, the first time he has led this particular poll since September 17th.
Internals in the Swing State Poll show Romney leading among independents by 49%-39%, a big margin and a disaster for Obama. Romney leads among men by 11%, and Obama leads among women by 5%. Among those certain of their vote, Romney leads by 46-40. Among independents, that lead is 43-31, with a 50-36 lead among men and only a 41-44 deficit among women.
In the American Research Group poll in Ohio, Romney leads 48-47; and this is with a sample favoring Democrats by 9 percentage points, 42-33 with 30 for independents. In the 2008 election, Obama won by only 8 points! Among independents, Romney is up by 20 points. Once again, Obama won independents by 8 in Ohio in 2008. (In 2010, the Dem/Rep/Indep split was 36-37-28!)
Here’s an October 9th result from the famously conservative Daily Kos! On the day of the debate, Markos Moulitsas had Obama up 49-45. One week later, Romney is up 49-47! The sample is 40-37-23; and as the Hot Air website puts it, “that significantly undersamples independents, which becomes an issue when one sees how independents break out in the election.”
In 2008, Obama won women by 13 points and men by 1. Daily Kos now has Romney leading men by 12 and trailing Obama in the women’s vote by 6. From +14 to -6 in four short years! (Ninety two years later and the 19th Amendment is still a mistake. Oh well.)
Gallup’s likely voter survey favors Romney 49-47 as of October 9th. One week ago, Gallup had Obama leading by 5.
In the latest PEW poll, Romney is up 49-45 among likely voters. Of interest is the PEW finding that Obama and Romney are TIED with registered voters, something almost unheard of as Democrats generally feast on such a sample. A PEW poll prior to the debate had Obama leading by 8, 51-43!
And for those impressed by the folks who make the odds, a gentleman in Las Vegas has written that he “…predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.”
By the way, for those who break into night sweats about Obama’s minions and the voter fraud we all know is coming, do yourselves a favor and forget about it. Even the One will not be able to generate enough dead, illegal alien, and fraudulent absentee ballots to overcome the lacing he’s going to receive on November 6th.
Follow Coach at twitter.com @KcoachcCoach
Photo credit: terrellaftermath
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