In the days immediately after Barack Obama decreed an amnesty for 800,000 illegal aliens, the Democrat cheerleaders in the media have been giddily claiming that it has ignited Hispanic enthusiasm to vote for Obama. According to Obama’s steno pool, this decree solved a problem that has been plaguing Obama’s reelection campaign plans for months.
A Latino Decisions and America’s Voice survey found “registered voters” are “very enthusiastic” about Barack Obama’s announcement granting amnesty to these 800,000 people. Aside from the fact that there is a difference between enthusiasm for a policy and enthusiasm to vote for Obama, the “new surge of enthusiasm” only brings Hispanics’ desire to vote roughly in line with that found among blacks and young voters.
Enthusiasm among none of these groups stands above 48%. Numbers like this will not get Obama re-elected.
Before Obama’s announcement, 53% of Hispanics reported being less enthused about voting next November than they were in 2009. Thirty percent were more enthused to vote. The hidden gem in these numbers shows that an alarming 22% were excited to vote before the BIG announcement. Twenty two percent!
An August 2008 CNN Poll found 62% of Hispanics were looking forward to voting, which they did at a rate of 66% for Obama. By 2010, Hispanic voting patterns had changed as they returned away from Democrats. In 2010, Hispanics voted 63% Democrat, down from 69% in 2006.
Bad numbers speak for themselves.
The most recent survey of Hispanic voter enthusiasm before last weekend was completed in February by YouGov. It found that just 43% of Hispanic Democrats were looking forward to voting.
This means Obama’s BIG announcement may have moved Hispanic enthusiasm up 5 points. This “put him over the top”? That’s doubtful.
While all of this is playing out, it is worth noting that in 2008, CNN found that 92% of blacks were excited to vote, and they voted 95% for Obama. A February 2012 YouGov poll reported that black voter enthusiasm had fallen to 60%, which was what white voter enthusiasm was just before the 2008 election.
Remember these numbers; they make sense of Obama’s moves and prove that predictions of his victory are wishful thinking at best.
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