Both Dick Morris and James Carville have released polling data that points to a Mitt Romney victory in November. Although they have gone their separate ways, in the 1990s, they were both important members of Bill Clinton’s successful political machine.
While Carville’s Democracy Corps has found Barack Obama leading Romney by a slim 49/47 – a two point improvement for Romney over their last poll-the sample universe over-surveys Democrats by 6 points with a D-R-I breakdown of 38/32/28.
There are very positive items here: the 38/32 Republican/Democrat Party identification split sharply contrasts with the 34.9/34 Republican to Democrat split reported by Rasmussen, which also reports a 31% Independent identification.
This is important because Democracy Corps’s (DC) numbers show Romney enjoys a 15 point lead among Independents, but DC’s 28 point Independent sample is 3 points short of Rasmussen’s findings.
When Obama took the 2008 election by 7 points, he won Independents by 8 points – today he is losing Independents by 15 points 53.4/38. Moreover, the turnout showed a +7 Democrat 39/32 edge over Republicans. The numbers make Carville’s two-point Obama lead suspect. Independents have moved 23 points away from Obama. By any standard, this is far outside any margin of error.
The combined comparative “gender gap” of just 3.2 points is a drop of 10 points from the gender gap Obama enjoyed in 2008.
Earlier this week, Dick Morris released the results of his poll of 500 likely voters that shows Romney leading 50/43. Using a 33/31/36 Democrat/Republican/Independent distribution, the Morris poll personally spoke to its respondents. To add extra strength to the numbers, Morris spoke to 11% of blacks and 8% of Hispanics, both of which square with their 2008 participation.
Other important data from this survey:
Obama’s personal favorable/unfavorable rating is 47/50; Romney’s is 48/48.
“Who would improve the economy?” Romney by 49/39
“Strengthen Medicare?” Obama 44/42
“What is more important: the economy or strengthening Medicare?” Economy 67/18
By 2 points, Obama scares people more than Romney does.
Had Morris included his margin of error, it might have added more power to these findings, but Romney’s seven point lead would seem to be beyond any standard MoE.
This data reaffirms that Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008 or doing better with any group he did win.
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