Both Dick Morris and James Carville have released polling data that points to a Mitt Romney victory in November. Although they have gone their separate ways, in the 1990s, they were both important members of Bill Clinton’s successful political machine.
While Carville’s Democracy Corps has found Barack Obama leading Romney by a slim 49/47 – a two point improvement for Romney over their last poll-the sample universe over-surveys Democrats by 6 points with a D-R-I breakdown of 38/32/28.
There are very positive items here: the 38/32 Republican/Democrat Party identification split sharply contrasts with the 34.9/34 Republican to Democrat split reported by Rasmussen, which also reports a 31% Independent identification.
This is important because Democracy Corps’s (DC) numbers show Romney enjoys a 15 point lead among Independents, but DC’s 28 point Independent sample is 3 points short of Rasmussen’s findings.
When Obama took the 2008 election by 7 points, he won Independents by 8 points – today he is losing Independents by 15 points 53.4/38. Moreover, the turnout showed a +7 Democrat 39/32 edge over Republicans. The numbers make Carville’s two-point Obama lead suspect. Independents have moved 23 points away from Obama. By any standard, this is far outside any margin of error.
The combined comparative “gender gap” of just 3.2 points is a drop of 10 points from the gender gap Obama enjoyed in 2008.
Earlier this week, Dick Morris released the results of his poll of 500 likely voters that shows Romney leading 50/43. Using a 33/31/36 Democrat/Republican/Independent distribution, the Morris poll personally spoke to its respondents. To add extra strength to the numbers, Morris spoke to 11% of blacks and 8% of Hispanics, both of which square with their 2008 participation.
Other important data from this survey:
Obama’s personal favorable/unfavorable rating is 47/50; Romney’s is 48/48.
“Who would improve the economy?” Romney by 49/39
“Strengthen Medicare?” Obama 44/42
“What is more important: the economy or strengthening Medicare?” Economy 67/18
By 2 points, Obama scares people more than Romney does.
Had Morris included his margin of error, it might have added more power to these findings, but Romney’s seven point lead would seem to be beyond any standard MoE.
This data reaffirms that Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008 or doing better with any group he did win.
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Don’t get confident….obama’s team holder is waiting in the wings with their corrupt voters….and now TX ….old Perry’s turf, the judges voted against vote ID and that is the pits…..they have to have a id to get food stamps and write a check, go to the doctor etc, but obama has paid the illegals our FDA food stamps to vote for him and they surely will try either that or use the military….They are just like Europe,,,,may be lower, and obama doesn’t want to upset Valerie and Michelle….and Soros/Huffington Post have invested a lot of money and money is nothing to this commie…
The judges that voted against voter ID law in texas should have a fast track into the unemployment line. We don`t need corrupt judge`s like that in our courts.
Still it is to close. Giving the immigrants Id’s benefited him. But what I have read, A lot of Texans are really upset with Obummer. But to me. Romney is going to get the office with the way the economy is. Toward the end of Oct will we know for sure.
I hope you are wrong, sloegin, but it certainly is a scary thought. Lets all pray that the voting polls on election day are staffed with honest people on both sides of the aisle
Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan Are going to win in November. Need I say any more?
Jimmy, Gator-Boy, Cahville is still in the tank for Hilly/Billy. Dick Morris, not so much.
The American people see the writing on the wall…let’s not allow them to steal this election too!
True The Vote, people! Get involved!
I fear we’re whistling past the graveyard.
Obama has managed to keep his most important secrets, that he is not half Negro (probably Caucasian father, native Hawai’ian mother, both U.S. citizens, nothing wrong with not, except that he pretends his adoptive black father was his birth father for meretricious political and subversive reasons), and the even more important open secret that he relinquished his American citizenship for Indonesian when he came of age, which people choose to ignore.
He has had the benefits of incumbency in building a massively corrupt machine that will create voters from thin air, and alter the true vote count if voter fraud proves insufficient.
He has recourse to substantially unlimited illegal and uncounted political contributions.
I’ve said for years that RINO candidates were on a fool’s errand and doomed to failure if people continued to believe that Obama was black and an American citizen. I yearn to believe I’m wrong, but I’m afraid I’m right.