The message attached to a new Politico-George Washington University Battleground Poll (P-GWUBP) is a study in literary gymnastics. As hard as the authors tried to twist the data of the survey, reading it brings you to only one logical conclusion: Mitt Romney is moving toward a solid victory and probably a landslide in November.
The report starts with background information, the only purpose of which is to try to discourage readers from sticking with “yesterday’s news” and stop reading before they get to the devastating news for Barack Obama. Once the actual report starts, the “good” news for Obama fans is provided: Obama leads Romney by 3 points – well kind of – sort of.
P-GWUBP admits to “rounding the number up from 2.6%.” Afterward, the report slips further and further into “Democrat fantasylands speak” as the contradictions begin to pile up. As you read these data points, keep in mind that they “supposedly” add up to a 3 point Obama lead.
Among middle class families, who are 54% of the total electorate, Romney leads 55/41.
Middle class families believe America is on the wrong track by 62/34, so the chances of these people staying home are non-existent.
Romney is leading on 5 of the 6 issues important to middle class voters. No matter what we have been hearing, middle class people, who are very likely voters, favor Romney on the economy, spending, foreign policy, taxes, and jobs.
Romney has lost no support among his Republican base, getting 87% of Republican support; and Obama is getting 88% of Democrat support. At this point, we have to stop and consider the registration numbers released by Rasmussen. They show registered Republicans at an all-time high of 37.6% and growing while Democrats are less than one point above their all-time low at 33.3%. Basic math says 87% of 37.6% is 32.7%, and 88% of 33.3% is 29.3%. When this spread is juxtaposed with the 1.3 point spread Republicans enjoyed in 2010, the news is very bad for Obama.
The report continues pointing to a 2 point lead for Obama among Independents. This is downright weird because in the last few weeks, James Carville’s Democracy Corps (15 points) and CNN (14 points) have both found Romney far ahead with Independents.
Among those more likely to vote – the 45 and over voters – Romney is up 7 points – that’s +6 with men and +9 with white women.
Despite an earlier poll showing much better numbers with Catholics, this report still has Romney winning with 51%. Since it doesn’t say Obama is getting the other 49%, it is a very good bet that he is NOT getting that much. It is worth noting that no Democrat has ever won the presidency without winning the Catholic vote.
Romney is “also receiving a higher level of support among Hispanics (40 percent), which is driven by higher support from Hispanic men”, according to this message.
All of this data reinforces the mantra echoed on this site again and again: Barack Obama is NOT winning any group he lost in 2008. He is NOT doing better with any group he did win – not Jews; not women (with white women, the largest group of women- Romney enjoys a 16 point turn around over what John McCain got); not the young; not Hispanics; and not African-Americans.
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