“At this point…Gallup Daily tracking of likely voter preferences suggests Obama has lost more support than he could afford to, given his current [51% to 45%] deficit to his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.”
If this sounds like good news, the Gallup 7 day tracking poll has even better. Mitt Romney has been ahead of Barack Obama for the past several days with the October 27 result of 51-45, once again putting the challenger over the 50% level into territory which Obama has failed to approach for a very long time.
And now, according to Gallup’s “demographics of likely voters,” it appears the 2012 election will find more Republicans than Democrats heading to the polls on November 6th!
Over the past few years, more voters have been identifying themselves as Republican and fewer as Democrat. As Gallup sees it, this means that “…the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.” In 2004, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by a 39-37 margin in the Gallup poll with 24% identifying themselves as independent. This year, Gallup’s numbers have Republicans holding a 36-35 advantage while “leaning” voters favor the GOP by 49-46. In 2008, Democrats held a 10 point advantage in this important demographic. And many polls—especially those of mainstream media representatives—are still using a near 2008 breakage between the parties, polling Democrats in 2012 with a turnout advantage of between 5 to 13 points!
In 2004, the final Gallup result prior to Election Day gave George Bush a 2 point advantage over John Kerry. And Bush won the election by just that margin. If Mitt Romney’s current 6 point advantage should hold for the next 10 days, even the most egregious Democrat voter fraud in swing states would probably not be enough to put Obama over the finish line. For Obama has not gained ground among any of his base voter blocs. In fact, it is believed he will lose support among Catholics, Jews, women, men and even blacks. A current Survey USA poll gives Obama just 70% of the black vote in Ohio while Romney earns 22%, a remarkable result which could not have occurred just a few years ago. And the 16 point edge which Obama had among women voters was just 4 points a week ago and is now virtually gone according to a Rasmussen poll.
Naturally anything can happen between now and Election Day. The ancient drunk driving charge so eagerly advanced by the liberal media against George Bush turned a virtual sure thing into a very close election in 2004.
But it’s the 4-year performance of Barack Obama that will drive voters in the 2012 election and neither the very excited Republican base nor even independents will be diverted from throwing the Marxist, Chicago thug out of the White House. And with a Republican advantage in numbers on Election Day, we could witness a blowout which will make news anchors weep on election night.