According to the post-convention polls, Barack “the bump” Obama and Mitt Romney are now “tied.” The internals of one of the more comical polls, the CNN/ORC International poll of registered and likely voters released Tuesday, claimed Obama was ahead by 52/46. The survey grossly over- polled Democrats and shut Independents out almost completely, speaking to just five dozen or so out of about 850 responding. A closer look reveals two very important pieces of information. Among the few Independent voters the survey did gather data from, Romney holds a significant 54/40 lead. This becomes still more important in light of Obama’s 52/44 edge in 2008 that was the underpinning of the 54% overall support he rode to victory. As leftist and loony as the CNN/ORC was, its 16 point spread lines up perfectly with the 53/38 lead James Carville and Stan Greenberg’s Democracy Corps found two weeks ago. The most important measurement of voter sentiment is the enthusiasm they have for actually showing up at the polls to vote. The CNN/ORC poll found that Republicans who are “very enthusiastic” to vote provide a 6 point (62/56) edge for Romney.
A Romney spokesman put this edge into perspective saying, “This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day”
Of course, the best news for Romney was whispered out last Sunday during the middle of the Labor Day weekend when Rasmussen reported that Republican voter registration is now at the highest level in recorded history – 37.6%, and Democrat voter registration at 33.3% is now less than a point above its historic low. The importance of this 4.3 point registration gap cannot be overstated.
For perspective, it must be juxtaposed to the 1.3 point Republican edge going into the 2010 election when the GOP won 63 House races and re-took control of Congress. Given his 6 point enthusiasm gap and the generic 4.3 point spread in Party registration, is it really worth paying attention to the polls that are showing Obama ahead or even close?
Photo Credit : Gage Skidmore (Creative Commons)
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Hrm. Look, for the Red Faction to have any kind of “advantage” in this conflict between the Etch-A-Sketch (whom none of us in any part of the real Republican voting base have ever wanted) and the Indonesian Illegal Immigrant passing himself off as POTUS, there would have to be some sign that the Rockefeller RINO types who’ve got their thumbs around the party’s throat gave one little greasy goddam about our concerns.
The RNC proceedings – in which the suppression of the Tea Party and the other genuinely constitutionalist constituencies was blatantly perpetrated by Boehner and the rest of those unspeakable weasels (didn’t those idiots realize that with cell phone cameras everywhere these days, the whole goddam country was reading from their TelePrompTers?) – provided more than sufficient proof that the GOP itself is every bit as much an enemy of the U.S. Constitution as are their good buddies across the aisle.
The Etch-A-Sketch has no “advantage” at all, and despite the tremendous hatred our Mombasa Mystery Mulatto Messiah has earned for himself, Willard the Wussy could still lose this election, just by being the watered-down buttermilk nonentity he’s always been.
Look, the lamestream media (who have been slobberingly sucking the shoes of Stanley Ann’s Neglected Child for the past five years) haven’t been calling the Romnhoid “the presumptive nominee” since the beginning of 2011 because they want him to win.
They’ve been selling that worthless jerk because they’ve known from the beginning that he was the single candidate in the contest who is most likely to lose this election.
The media types hate conservatives, and they hate the Republican Party only a little less.
Nothing they conceive to be politically “good” for the GOP is ever going to be anything but catastrophically horrible, and Mrs. Romney’s hubby is the very worst we could ever have done.
I never believe anything that has NBC in its title. That is such a shame too that three major networks have almost no credibility anymore except to the people who are uniformed and believe what they tell them.
I don’t think they will ever go back to being respected. They talk about polls on politicians but I bet if you asked the American people what their take on the major networks, they would have a very low rating.
patti’s desk: you betcha,i don’t watch any “NEWS” from those three stations,count me in. pl,orl,fl
Who cares what the polls say? Its all in the counting of the votes and I understand the counting will be done in Spain by a Soros owned business. Why bother, just get on with it.