Republicans are excited about the prospect of controlling the Senate majority after the 2014 elections. In order to seize control, Republicans need to pick up six seats. This would have a huge impact on Obama’s ability to set the agenda and influence your life.
Democrats have the edge, but they must defend 20 seats, including seven seats in states that President Obama lost in 2012. Already, five Democratic incumbents have thrown in the towel, announcing plans to retire.
History is with the Republicans. During midterm elections, a president’s party often loses Senate seats. Here is a state-by-state roundup of Senate seats in play. We will update these races periodically.
Alaska
Democrats control this seat with freshman Senator Mark Begich, even though Obama lost Alaska in both 2008 and 2012. Begich only won this race by 1% of the vote because longtime Senator Ted Stevens was under the cloud of a Justice Department investigation.
Begich has worked hard, but anti-Obama sentiment is likely to be his undoing. Several strong candidates, including 2008 GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller, are considering the race.
Early prognosis: The Republicans pick up a seat (+1)
Arkansas
Barack Obama only received 36.88% of the vote in Arkansas in 2012. The President is very unpopular there, and he could bring down Democratic Senator Mark Pryor. Obamacare is also unpopular in Arkansas, and it will be used against Pryor (who voted for it.)
Republicans need to find a strong candidate to challenge Pryor. Last time Pryor ran, Republicans failed to field a candidate against him.
Rep. Tom Cotton, a rising conservative star, would be a formidable challenger to Pryor. Cotton is an Iraq War veteran and a favorite of Club for Growth and other conservative groups.
A poll released in mid-March showed Cotton leading Pryor, 43 percent to 35 percent. Cotton hasn’t decided what to do, but Republicans would be smart to urge him to run.
Early prognosis: Democrats hold Arkansas unless the GOP can produce a strong challenger (+0)
Iowa
Senator Tom Harkin, a fixture in Iowa politics for decades, is finally retiring. This gives Republicans a shot to win.
Even though Obama carried the state in 2012, Iowa remains very competitive for Republicans. Rep. Steve King has already thrown his hat in the ring, and he would be a strong contender. But don’t count on Republicans to pull together. King is one of the candidates D.C. GOP operative Karl Rove has targeted. Rove may spend big money against King, damaging his chances in the fall.
Early prognosis: Republican infighting keeps this seat Democrat (+0)
Louisiana
The Pelican State has been trending Republican, but Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu was re-elected with 52% of the vote in 2008. And as a long-term officeholder, she has to be considered the likely winner.
All of the Republican Party Congressmen from Louisiana will be competing for the GOP nomination to challenge Landrieu. Unfortunately for the Republicans, all of the challengers trail her in fundraising.
It will not be easy getting the better of Landrieu, but it is not impossible either. Unfortunately, the popular GOP Governor Bobby Jindal took a pass on this race.
Early prognosis: The Democrats will hold Louisiana (+0)
Michigan
Nobody thinks of Michigan as Republican; but with the insolvency of Detroit, the finances of the state have forced voters to turn to the GOP for answers. Obama carried Michigan in the presidential race, but the GOP did very well down ticket.
Longtime Democratic Senator Carl Levin has decided to retire, and it could provide Republicans with an opening. Three Republican Congressmen are looking at the race: Reps. Dave Camp, Mike Rogers, and Justin Amash, a Tea Party favorite. Scott Romney, brother of Mitt Romney, is also looking at the race.
Early prognosis: Bad finances and strong Republican candidates give the GOP another seat (+1)
North Carolina
Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan rode Obama’s coattails into office in 2008 and defeated incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole. But North Carolina swung hugely Republican in 2012.
Now, every poll has Hagan below 50%, which is definitely a good sign for Republicans. Optimism has launched a crowded field into the GOP primary.
Early prognosis: The GOP should easily win here (+1)
South Dakota
Winds of change led three-term incumbent Democrat Senator Tim Johnson to tuck tail and retire. Popular two-term Republican Gov. Mike Rounds has announced his intention to run.
Early prognosis: The Republicans will only lose this one if they really screw up (+1)
Virginia
GOP chances in Virginia are slim unless Gov. Bob McDonnell, who has reached his term limit in the governor’s mansion, decides to run. But incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner is also popular, so the race won’t be easy.
On top of that, Virginia residents’ jobs are often dependent on federal spending. So it won’t be easy for any fiscally responsible Republican to win in Virginia. McDonnell probably gives the GOP its best shot.
Early prognosis: Chances are slim at this point (+0)
West Virginia
Democratic incumbent Senator Jay Rockefeller decided not to run for re-election. President Obama lost this state twice because of his stands against increasing coal-generated electricity, and he remains unpopular. The GOP has an excellent opportunity to win this WV Senate seat. Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is running, and very early opinion polls give her a lead.
Early prognosis: This seat is likely Republican (+1)
The Final Count
The early analysis shows that the Republicans will likely pick up five seats. It would only take one GOP win in a closely contested race in Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, or Virginia to retire Harry Reid and change the face of Washington.
This article originally appeared at CapitoHillDaily.com and is reprinted here with permission.
Photo credit: terrellaftermath
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Drone Warfare In America
In early March, Senator Rand Paul had America buzzing about drones. They were the highlight of his 13-hour filibuster against John Brennan, Barack Obama’s nominee to be director of the CIA. Paul’s intention was not to actually stop the nomination of Brennan – he knew the filibuster would fail. Instead, he wished to turn the nation’s attention to the use of drone-fired missiles to kill American citizens and others around the globe.
Paul repeatedly cited the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, part of our cherished Bill of Rights, saying: “The Fifth Amendment… should protect you from a president that might kill you with a drone.”
“You can’t be judge, jury and executioner all in one,” Paul warned.
Well, John Brennan tried to play that role when executing Americans at the behest of Barack Obama’s War on Terror strategy. Even George W. Bush put terrorists in Guantanamo Bay before bringing them to trial. Obama just dispensed with the trials and moved right to summary execution.
Sadly, Brennan was confirmed, and the missile-mounted drones continue to fly.
“Are you going to just drop a Hellfire missile on Jane Fonda?”
So are drones (or unmanned aircraft systems–UASs–as they are called by the military) useful? Sure – in war zones. They are good for spying on the enemy and targeting enemy forces and supplies.
But even in these situations, drones have scary consequences. By some accounts in the foreign press, secret drone attacks have killed an estimated 4,700 people – nearly one quarter have been civilians, and as many as 200 are reportedly children.
And worse yet, the Obama administration admitted to targeting Americans and foreign nationals (albeit those in terror groups).
They also claim the legal authority to kill U.S. citizens without a trial (even here in America) as long as the target is linked to a terrorist organization.
Look, I am not alone in being very suspicious of these powers. As government agencies increase the use of drone technology, opportunities for abuse grow exponentially, especially when the Obama administration reserves the right to kill Americans without due process.
U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder recently defended using lethal force against Americans in America, saying it would be considered legal and justified in an “extraordinary circumstance.”
“The President could conceivably have no choice but to authorize the military to use such force if necessary to protect the homeland,” Holder concluded.
10,000 New Drones By 2020
If the Obama administration’s life-extinguishing policy wasn’t enough, get this: A Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) report anticipates 10,000 new civilian drones will be flying the skies of America by the year 2020.
Sound outlandish? It’s not. Since 2007, the FAA has issued 1,428 licenses to police, universities, and federal agencies to fly drones domestically.
This sounds like a perfect storm of threats to privacy and security. Imagine these drones spying on your business or even your teenage daughter as she sunbathes next to the backyard pool.
Sounding the Alarm Bells
In December 2011, The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) issued a report entitled “Protecting Privacy from Aerial Surveillance” that warned of the potential “mission creep” related to the use of drone technology.
The ACLU concluded: “Based on current trends – technology development, law enforcement interest, political and industry pressure, and the lack of legal safeguards – it is clear that drones pose a looming threat to Americans’ privacy.”
The report provides a disturbing glimpse into a future where unmanned drones become an indispensable tool of law enforcement: “Fleets of UAVs, interconnected and augmented with analytics software, could enable the mass tracking of vehicles and pedestrians around a wide area,” the study revealed. “The use of drones could also be expanded from surveillance to actual intervention in law enforcement situations on the ground.”
The ACLU advised that with UAS technologies, police agencies could “dispel protesters, stop a fleeing auto, or fire weapons.” You know, like Hellfire missiles.
Sounds like a scene from a Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller.
Unfortunately, it’s very real… at this point, drones are here to stay. But thanks to Senator Paul, they are now on the tip of everyone’s tongue; and I hope this will encourage much greater scrutiny of the government’s drone policies going forward. At least some of us still believe in our rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
This article originally appeared at CapitolHillDaily.com and is reprinted here with permission.